On Monday, the Nasdaq index fell by 0.5% during the day, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.25%, and the Dow Jones index rose by 0.77%. The gold price broke through $3,100 to $3,127 per ounce, having doubled since 2022. Goldman Sachs expects that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut interest rates three times this year. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in July, September, and November, while the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates in April, June, and July. Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is only 23.3%, with a cumulative probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points at 64.7%, and a cumulative probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points at 12%.

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The California State Assembly has officially submitted the AB - 1052 (BTC Rights) bill. This bill, proposed by the head of the California Department of Banking and Financial Institutions, Assemblyman Juan Carrillo Valencia, aims to provide legal protections for digital asset users, including clarifying the self-custody rights of BTC and other digital assets, and prohibiting public institutions from taxing or imposing restrictions on assets used for payments. If passed, the bill will provide rights protection related to digital assets for nearly 40 million Californians and may serve as a template for similar legislation in other regions. David Sacks, White House Director of Cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence, stated regarding "the FDIC's new guidelines clarifying U.S. banks' participation in cryptocurrency activities": FDIC makes it easier for banks to get involved in crypto-related activities, which is one of the best ways to further drive the mainstream adoption of crypto. Previously, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) stated that institutions regulated by the FDIC can participate in "allowed" crypto activities without prior approval from the FDIC and will continue to communicate with Trump’s Digital Asset Working Group. Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool (Fish Pool), will undertake the sixth manned space mission aboard the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft on April 1, serving as the commander. This flight will mark humanity's first polar orbit manned mission. Mining company Marathon Digital announced a $2 billion stock sale plan, with the proceeds mainly used to purchase additional BTC and for general corporate purposes. According to DefiLlama data, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $233.454 billion, growing 0.99% over the past week.

ABCDE Co-founder BMAN: The crypto market is in a bull market 5% of the time and a bear market 95% of the time. Individuals and businesses need resilience, patience, and strategic determination, paying tribute to the strong who persist on the front lines. Bloomberg: FTX will begin repaying debts to its main creditors with the $11.4 billion cash reserves collected since the company’s closure by the end of May. Lawyer Andrew Dietderich stated that while small creditors have begun receiving payments, the company will first make payments to the main creditor group on May 30. Analyst Ryan Lee stated that the 25% tariff proposed by Trump (set to be implemented on April 2 against goods from Mexico and Canada) has raised market concerns, with BTC and ETH facing dual tests from macro and technical factors. The correlation between crypto assets and traditional markets has increased, with BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq reaching 0.67; if U.S. stocks weaken, this could weigh on the crypto market. Matt Weller, Global Market Research Director at StoneX, stated that Wall Street dislikes uncertainty, and the ambiguity of U.S. tariff announcements has undoubtedly hit risk appetite hard. Once the situation stabilizes, risk assets and the dollar may see a brief rebound; however, if Trump continues to escalate tariffs after April 2, any rebound will be fleeting unless traders are confident that these disruptive economic policies have ended. Investment manager Jed Ellerbroek stated that increasing visibility on tariff policies is a necessary prerequisite to reversing this risk-averse sentiment. Last week, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw cumulative inflows of $196.4 million, while the ETH spot ETF saw cumulative outflows of $8.7 million.

Strategy increased its holdings by 22,048 BTC from March 24 to March 30, buying at an average price of $86,969, totaling $1.92 billion. Currently, Strategy holds a total of 528,185 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $35.63 billion, averaging around $67,458 per BTC. On March 31, Tether issued an additional $1 billion stablecoin, with a cumulative issuance of $8 billion in stablecoins since 2025. On Monday, the Nasdaq index fell by 0.5% during the day, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.25%, and the Dow Jones index rose by 0.77%. BTC rose by 0.5%, and ETH rose by 1.1%. The gold price broke through $3,100 to $3,127 per ounce, having doubled since 2022. U.S. Bank analysts expect the average gold price this year to be around $3,063 per ounce, rising to $3,350 by 2026, and reaching $3,500 within two years. Concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates more aggressively than currently predicted will provide significant support for demand in the remaining time of this year. Goldman Sachs expects that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut interest rates three times this year, as Trump's tariffs put pressure on U.S. economic growth. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in July, September, and November, while the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates in April, June, and July. The forecast for the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 has been lowered by 0.5% to 1%; the unemployment rate forecast has been raised by 0.3% to 4.5%. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised the probability of the U.S. economy entering recession in the next 12 months from 20% to 35%. Economists report that the downside risks posed by tariffs to the U.S. economy have increased the likelihood of a 2019-style "preventive" interest rate cut.

This Wednesday, Trump plans to implement the so-called tariffs, causing market nerves to be on edge; on Friday, the March non-farm payroll report will be released (previous value 151,000, expected 140,000), along with the unemployment rate (previous value 4.1%, expected 4.1%). On Friday, Powell will give a speech, and the market looks forward to his views on the U.S. economy, inflation, and tariffs, seeking direction for interest rate cuts in April. Trump's tariff plan increases the downside risks for the U.S. economy and raises the likelihood of a 2019-style "preventive" interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is only 23.3%, with a cumulative probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points at 64.7%, and a cumulative probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points at 12%. The U.S. stock market benchmark S&P 500 index turned positive during the day, rising by 0.25%, after opening down 1.6%; the Nasdaq index opened down more than 2.0% but narrowed to 0.5%. This week, the long-standing U.S. tariff panic may settle, and important indicators like non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will also be released, potentially causing significant volatility in U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market, with a small probability of becoming a turning point for the market, requiring close attention to / monitoring of volatility risk.