3.31 Monday Evening Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Ideas
Current Key Support Level: The current Bitcoin price is approaching the key psychological support level of 80,000. If the price stabilizes in this area, it may trigger a technical rebound.
On-chain Data Health: Although the inventory on exchanges has slightly increased, the net outflow of Bitcoin on-chain still prevails, indicating that long-term holders are not selling off in large quantities, and the market's chip structure is relatively stable.
Long-term Fundamentals Favorable
Halving Effect: The supply tightening effect after the Bitcoin halving in 2024 is gradually becoming evident, combined with institutions continuously increasing their holdings through ETFs (MicroStrategy), long-term demand growth may drive prices upward.
Policy Expectations: If the Trump administration continues its friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies (such as tax reforms or strategic reserve plans), it may boost market confidence.
MACD Divergence: Although the 4-hour MACD shows downward pressure, the daily moving averages (EMA-10/SMA-30) still maintain an upward trend. If the price stabilizes above 82,000, it may correct the short-term oversold condition.
Evening Trading Suggestions for Bitcoin:
We will primarily focus on low bids tonight, buying in batches within the 81,000-81,500 range, with stop-loss set below 80,000 (to avoid false breakouts).
Targeting 83,500-84,000; if broken, we look towards above 85,000.
Continue to watch for breaks in low bids within the range and consider shorting for reversal.
