The cryptocurrency market continues to be affected by Trump's tariffs and liquidity withdrawal. It has corrected for two months, with the Federal Reserve and Trump engaged in a tug-of-war, delaying interest rate cuts. However, the space for U.S. Treasuries is nearing a breaking point, with annual interest exceeding military expenditures, becoming the number one crisis for the Trump administration. The AI bubble in U.S. tech stocks has also been punctured by Deepseek. Trump implements shock therapy to initiate a tariff war, aiming to prematurely reignite industrial prosperity and trigger the U.S. economy and stock market bubble before the midterm elections, shifting blame onto the Democrats and the Federal Reserve. There is a risk of collapse for the U.S. and the stock market.
If the US economy collapses, a global depression may begin in the second half of the year and last for 2-3 years. This is also in line with the fifth Kondratieff cycle: a great depression from 2025 to 2027, a small recovery may begin in the second half of 2027, and a full recovery in 2030, ushering in a new prosperity led by China.
For the $BTC and the U.S. stock market, the next quarter from April to June could be the end of this year or even the next two years, the Wall Street offloading season; BTC will start to form the right side of the monthly M top and the weekly divergence segment, then begin to correct while struggling near the bull-bear dividing line of the weekly 60 moving average. If a great depression occurs, a bear market may begin, similar to the last bullish market trend;
Possible factors for the upcoming rise: Wall Street capital offloading and the Federal Reserve's technical pause on tapering, SEC and CFTC chairpersons officially taking office, and state-level Bitcoin reserve legislation starting to take effect;
The specific daily, weekly, and monthly trends are as follows:
Daily: The BTC daily downtrend has formed and is ongoing. Pay attention to whether there will be a panic drop after the tariffs are implemented on April 2, with initial support looking around the major trend support and previous low near 76,000;
Weekly: After reaching a new high on January 20, BTC began a correction, forming an M top on the weekly chart. The neck line is symmetrical downwards, and the formation is mostly completed around the 76,000 point, also reaching the support line of the weekly 60 moving average separating bulls from bears; the weekly chart may form a W bottom, followed by a new quarterly uptrend, establishing a divergence segment on the weekly chart;
Monthly and Quarterly: The monthly chart has a chance of forming a right-side high point of an M pattern, similar to the previous bullish market. The previous high of 110,000 is near the endpoint; breaking new highs or approaching new highs would likely complete the pattern, followed by an M top correction, observing step by step;
Quarterly 5 moving average support may be briefly broken and then pull back. If it does not break the previous low, there may be a new high again. If it breaks the previous low, then the historical high of 110,000 may not be surpassed;
Summary: Currently, BTC is undergoing a daily correction, closing below 86,000 last week; the weekly chart closed bearish, possibly accelerating downwards with the April 2 tariffs, followed by a small cycle forming a W bottom, initiating an upward trend on the weekly divergence segment and the right side of the monthly M top. Time-wise, this is highly probable for the next quarter and is ongoing; the next quarter is likely to be a BTC quarter, focusing on the BTC ecosystem, especially the new staking ecology of BTCFI. ETH may not perform strongly, following BTC's rise, after all, liquidity is limited! Altcoins also have different ecologies!
Major Opportunities:
Last week's correction short: 86,000-87,000 in batches short --> 78,000-75,000, the intensity depends on the impact of Trump's tariff nuclear bomb on April 2;
Stop the decline and go long: After a rapid drop, try to go long in batches --> 105,000-110,000 or new highs;
Other points of interest include BNB and BSC systems, needing a leader: Mubarak's wealth effect must be demonstrated to gain popularity;
