Ethereum is performing a tightrope act today, balancing on the edge with $1800!

Ethereum's five-minute chart is stuck at the $1800 mid-Bollinger Band, both bulls and bears are feeling the pressure like a tightened belt around the neck, the market is as tense as a full bow. The MACD has a bullish crossover under water, but the green bars are shrinking to -5.8, indicating a local exhaustion of bearish momentum. However, both the DIF and DEA are still lying below the zero axis, making it extremely difficult to pull off a surprise move. The RSI three-line is flat in the oversold zone, with RSI1 dropping to 25; this data looks like an ICU heart monitor, but the market makers are best at launching sneak attacks at extreme values. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, with the upper band at $1833 firmly capped and the lower band at $1763 holding 32,000 liquidation orders; if this position breaks, it will definitely lead to a bloodbath.

Market dissection: The death game of large funds.

On-chain monitoring shows BlackRock sold 32,000 ETH (approximately $64 million) in a single day, directly breaking through the market confidence line. However, CME Ethereum futures saw an increase of 7% in open contracts against the trend, exposing the market makers' ambitions. The critical lifeline to watch is two levels: the upper level at $1827, where the EMA7 and EMA30 have a death cross resistance; holding this could allow for a light position rebound; the lower level at $1763, which is a weekly level of high trading volume, with $320 million in liquidations gathering here. If this breaks, we will directly look at $1720 for bearish confirmation. The Fed's hawkish stance combined with Trump’s tariff moves has evaporated 15% of liquidity in the DeFi market, but gold-pegged coins PAXG and XAUT are rising against the trend, indicating that large funds are quietly hedging risks.

Operation manual: Better to be clumsy than to be cannon fodder.

Right now, don’t manually catch falling knives in the $1790-$1800 range; instead, place a limit order 5% below the previous low at $1763. The market makers will likely first smash through $1763 to liquidate the longs, then pull back to $1827 to harvest the shorts. Brothers with heavy positions, remember: place stop-loss hedges near the current price of $1827. The weekly triangle convergence is at its end, and the market makers have two nuclear options: either a volume breakout below $1720 leading to a bear market, or a false breakout followed by a violent rally into a super bull market. I will place 50% of my bullets on a breakout order at $1827 and wait for the other 50% at $1720 to catch falling knives.

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