It's been a long time since I posted, so I'll directly state my current judgment on the market trend, which is that the decline has not yet stopped. Whether it will fluctuate for a few months before declining again or decline directly again, I tend to lean towards the former.

Regarding how the market will move in the future, I have noticed that many people like to look online for various opinions from obscure KOLs, while ignoring the real experts. Now standing before you is Warren Edward Buffett, who started investing at the age of 11 and is still mentally sharp at 95. During this time, many trading prodigies have emerged like shooting stars, only to fall again, yet he has stirred the markets for decades and remains unshakeable, sitting on several hundred billion dollars in funds. To him, money is just a number; he only cares about the sense of achievement that comes from investing.

I cleared nine-tenths of my positions last year and only kept some platform tokens from various exchanges until now, solely because of the news below: Buffett reduced his stake in Apple by 50% in the second quarter of 2024, and then again reduced it by 25% in the third quarter. Apple belongs to the tech sector known as the Seven Sisters and is part of the Nasdaq, which is closely related to Bitcoin. Buffett never shorts the U.S. stock market, but when he reduces his stake, it is, to some extent, a bearish signal.

After Buffett's reduction, his position is approximately 50%. I remember the last time he reduced his stake to 50% was in 2005. After the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett once increased his stake to nearly 90%. Due to the size of his funds, Buffett tends to exit early, and usually, there is still a period of increase after he reduces his stake. So, after the news came out, I also made a move to go long, but I really didn't expect the crypto market to rise this much. This was purely due to the favorable news brought by Trump's administration, which is FOMO, but the market is ruthless; news is only temporary, and an unstable foundation will never hold.

Now, let's take a look at the current U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq and S&P are almost at the high point of the second quarter of 2024, which is exactly when Buffett reduced his stake, and they may even be higher.

So investing isn't that complicated. One moment Trump raises tariffs, manufacturing returns, the Federal Reserve doesn't cut interest rates, the contradiction between Powell and Trump, one moment inflation data, CPI, then U.S. unemployment rate, then the Russia-Ukraine war, and the EU's response. What use is it to look at these? You must remember that you come to the market to make money, not to listen to stories.