Goodbye to low prices if this level breaks.
The Bitcoin price ($BTC ) turned sideways over the past two days following a strong upward reaction to the 50-week moving average (red trend line). The reason is that it is about to face the most common resistance in this cycle, the 50-day moving average (blue trend line).
During the current upward cycle (2023-2025), the Bitcoin price always began its new rise near the 50-week moving average or on it, but the most significant development confirming this was its breakout above the 50-day moving average. In the previous correction/accumulation phases, the breakout above the 50-day moving average coincided with a Fibonacci retracement level breakout at 0.618.
The bottom of each phase forms when testing the 50-day moving average (1W MA50) on a double bottom pattern, which we saw on March 11, 2025, September 6, 2024, and September 11, 2023. Among these breakouts, the one-day relative strength index (1D RSI) patterns exhibit identical sequences.
As a result, once the price surpasses the 50-day moving average (1D MA50), we can say that the best buying opportunity in the past six months will disappear, and we will then have to pursue a rise of at least +97% (late 2023 rise, and late 2024 was stronger by +106%). This gives us a minimum target estimate of $150,000.
