Bitcoin and blockchain: a disillusioned person's awakening confession.

1. I don't believe in BTC, but I am grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto.

For me, Bitcoin (BTC) is neither a belief nor an investment target. I have never truly 'HODL'ed it, but I must admit — Satoshi Nakamoto is the greatest initiator of social experiments of this era.

• The value of BTC is not in the price, but in the experiment itself.

◦ It proves the feasibility of decentralized currency, even if it ultimately becomes an institutional hedging tool.

◦ It made the world realize that code is law, even if the reality is that regulation is becoming stricter.

◦ It ignited the dream of crypto anarchism, even if it ultimately gets tamed by capital.

But today's BTC is more like a liquidity indicator, rather than 'peer-to-peer electronic cash'.

2. The evolution of the blockchain circle: from the chain of contempt to the great melting pot.

In the past, the crypto world was distinct:

• Pie circle (BTC Maxi): believes in digital gold, looks down on all altcoins.

• Blockchain space (ETH/Solana, etc.): pursuing the 'world computer', looking down on capital schemes.

• Pump and dump circle (CX/土狗): only cares about price manipulation and running away, despised by everyone.

Today's crypto world has only the blockchain space left — because:

• People in the crypto world either achieve financial freedom or go to zero and exit.

• People in the pump and dump circle whitewash themselves and enter 'serious DeFi' through OKX, TRX, BSC.

But is the blockchain space really better?

3. The dilemma of Mass Adoption: If MEV is not solved, everything is just talk.

People in the blockchain space shout 'mass adoption' every day, but can't even solve the most basic MEV (miner extractable value).

• What is MEV?

◦ You buy tokens on Uniswap, a bot front-runs the trade, making you receive 20% less.

◦ You borrow on Compound, get sandwich attacked, pay an extra 10% interest.

If MEV is not solved, why would ordinary users use on-chain products?

4. The crypto world only has players, not users.

I said this three or four years ago, and it still holds true today.

• Public chains, GameFi, DeFi, it's the same group of people playing around.

• Real users (non-speculators) are almost nonexistent.

Why?

• Poor experience (Gas fees, MEV, private key management)

• Weak demand (ordinary people do not need decentralized lending).

• Value capture fails (tokens do not distribute dividends, do not buybacks).

Conclusion: 99% of projects in the crypto world are essentially useless.

5. The dilemma of U card: compliant ones can't use it, those who can use it are not compliant.

There are several 'evergreen tracks' in the blockchain space:

• Public chains (ETH/Solana)

• Exchanges (Binance/OKX)

• Lending (Aave/Compound)

• Payment (U card)

But the U card (crypto debit card) is the most awkward:

• Those in need (cross-border, gray and black markets) are easily card-blocked (Bybit card just died).

• Compliant individuals (ordinary users) use Visa/Alipay directly, who uses U card?

This is a microcosm of the blockchain space:

• Impressive projects do not issue tokens (USDT, USDC).

• Projects that issue tokens are not impressive (99% of tokens are worthless).

6. The rise logic of MEME: since it is useless, why not just gamble.

Since serious projects can't be developed, why not just play with MEME (Dogecoin, Pepe currency, etc.).

Reasons for the popularity of MEME:

1. BTC breaks new highs, capital needs a new narrative.

2. Crypto players need a 'wealth transfer movement' (money laundering, price manipulation, harvesting retail investors).

3. VCs do not take over, retail investors entertain themselves.

But the problem with MEME:

• No VCs are taking over (institutions do not buy MEME).

• The ecosystem cannot sustain itself (big holders can cause it to zero out with a single sell-off).

• You can deceive, but you can't deceive too many times (the retail investors will awaken).

Future outlook: MEME is unlikely to see another bull market.

7. Pulling hair, arbitrage, contracts: internal competition to the extreme.

• Pulling hair: the earliest batch of people made money, now it's too competitive, fewer and fewer good projects.

• On-chain arbitrage: low returns, high risks (protocols can be hacked at any time).

• Contracts: 99.99% of people ultimately lose money, including me (played for 8 years, total account hasn't made a profit).

Conclusion: Low-risk opportunities have disappeared, leaving only high-risk gambling.

8. Industry deterioration: from making cakes to picking each other's pockets.

In the past, the crypto world:

• Project parties want to change the world.

• VCs are willing to invest long-term.

The current crypto world:

• Project parties take the money and run (raise millions of dollars, code not updated).

• VCs invented the 'anti-downtime model', resulting in decreasing lower limits.

Profile of practitioners:

• From Stanford PhDs to mental health workers.

• More industry people, more bad actors.

9. Current state of exchanges: Binance is slacking, OKX is struggling, DEX has a long way to go.

• Binance: once a king, now 'screwing the industry', the listing team seems to have only one person left.

• OKX: Xu Mingxing may really want to do something, but it's hard to resist the industry's downturn.

• DEX: facing the problems of CEX from ten years ago (lag, compliance), still needs time.

10. All of this is meaningless.

• The essence of the crypto world is a digital game, behind one A9 (billionaire) are 100 A7s (millionaires) going bankrupt.

• I was a bankrupt A7, now I just want to do truly meaningful things.

The problem with the crypto world can be solved by a large influx of liquidity. But during the influx, other markets can also make profits.

"The gap between people is larger than the gap between people and dogs" — this sentence, the more I ponder, the more I agree.

Summary: Where is the future of blockchain?

• Short-term: continue the internal competition, MEME,土狗, gamble on contracts.

• Mid-term: regulatory intervention will eliminate 99% of projects.

• In the long term: perhaps there will be truly useful applications, but they will most likely have nothing to do with the current crypto world.

In the end, blockchain may just be a footnote in history, rather than a revolution.