In the past month, my three most important suggestions for market development (see screenshot):

First, buy BTC below 79,500.

Second, sell BTC near 88,000.

Third, ETH should be sold near 2,100.

图片图片图片

Now, let's talk about ETH.

Look at ETH's weekly chart.

图片

From 2018 to the end of 2021, it can be considered that a 5-wave structure has been formed, peaking at 4,868 USD.

Since 4,868 USD, a huge adjustment has been ongoing.

The drop from 4,868 USD to 881 USD is wave A.

The rise from 881 USD to 4,107 USD is wave B, which is roughly the 0.786 Fibonacci level of wave A.

The decline since 4,107 USD is wave C.

Currently, it seems that the overall situation may be a platform-type adjustment wave, where the structure of wave C is generally 5 waves or a terminal wedge. Since the decline since 4,107 has been very smooth, the probability of a 5-wave structure is higher.

Wave C can theoretically fall below the bottom of wave A, but considering that the retracement of wave A exceeded 0.786, it is believed that even if wave C falls below the bottom of wave A, it should not be too far off. Therefore, I believe that in extreme cases, the bottom for ETH should be between 800 and 1,000 USD.

Wave C can also not exceed wave A. From the perspective of Fibonacci, 0.886 is a reference point, corresponding to around 1,250, which is also roughly the bottom of wave 3-4 initially.

图片

Additionally, from the perspective of CME ETH futures, there is a historical gap around 1,500 USD, which has a high probability of rebounding. This is the 0.786 area for wave B.

In summary:

1. In extreme cases, the bottom for ETH may be between 800 and 1,000 USD.

2. Generally, ETH may show bottom characteristics around 1,250.

3. The historical gap for CME ETH is around 1,500, where there is significant rebound potential.

#ETH