Dogecoin has encountered a death cross! Can the lifeline of $0.18 hold tonight?
Today, the whale has kept DOGE at $0.1883 playing heartbeats, the four-hour K-line Bollinger Band lower limit at $0.18 is almost sparking! The MA20 moving average at $0.1914 is pressing down like Wuzhishan, the MACD bearish cross below water is opening at $0.0045, and the green bars are still increasing, this is textbook level of a downward continuation. Above the market, there are 1.82 billion liquidation orders piled up at $0.20, the whale is just waiting to spike and collect contracts, while below $0.18, there are 1.45 billion on-chain forced liquidation orders hanging, if this position breaks, we could directly see the abyss at $0.17. On-chain data has already raised alarms at midnight — a certain whale swept up 120 million DOGE three days ago, and today it sold back 430 million to Binance, this operation is clearly a self-directed play by the whale, first accumulating and then liquidating, eating from both ends.
Technical nuclear-level signals: the four-hour chart's Williams indicator has dropped to the -90 oversold zone, the RSI is stuck at 47 not moving up or down, indicating that retail investors who tried to catch the bottom have all been buried, the whale is now using one hand to trade against the other to liquidate, playing a double kill for both longs and shorts. But at the weekly level, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $0.17 and the 200-day moving average are forming a golden cross, and the 12-hour chart has revealed the embryonic form of a 'cup and handle' pattern. If this position can hold, the whale could pull it to $0.28 in a heartbeat.
The battle between longs and shorts is bloody: the total contract positions have increased against the trend to 1.596 million contracts, but the total value has shrunk to $288 million, indicating that the whale is clearly accumulating at low levels. What's worse is that the retail long-short account ratio has skyrocketed to 3.6:1, while the position amount long-short ratio is only 2.11:1, indicating that all the following long positions are just waiting to be cut, the whale has already prepared shorts in the dark. News-wise, all eyes are on the Fed's remarks tonight, if they dare to sound hawkish, $0.18 will definitely not hold; but if Trump suddenly calls for MEME coins, it’s also possible for the whale to take advantage of that and push through $0.20.
Spot traders should not rush to buy, wait to accumulate in batches below $0.18, if it breaks below $0.175, cutting losses is a must; contract traders should play it at $0.18-$0.19 high short and low long, with stop losses set firmly at $0.173 and $0.195. Remember, the whale holds 2 billion liquidation orders, this market can wipe your account to zero with just one spike!
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