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As the saying goes, "Without unexpected wealth, one cannot be rich; without night grass, the horse cannot be fat." I believe many people enter the crypto world with the intention of making a fortune and reaching the peak of their lives. However, due to the lack of correct methods, things often go awry, and in the end, they lose both money and opportunity. Therefore, many people start their learning journey, such as buying books, researching materials, or seeking guidance from experienced people.
Let's talk about what kind of people can truly navigate Bitcoin in the crypto world.
There are only two types of people: one is the visionary, and the other is the insightful.
(1) Visionaries can grasp the general direction of the future, while insightful individuals can seize current opportunities. It can be said with responsibility: one can only rely on continuous trial and error to learn from losses, then take various detours, and walk across the river by feeling the stones.
(2) There are many ways to make money in the crypto world. Some methods may not align with your beliefs, but there are indeed people who can profit. You may not see it, but their growth is entirely the same as yours. Without the solid foundation laid in the preceding years, there would be no later explosive growth. Therefore, any success is definitely not coincidental.
(3) If you want to achieve stable profits, you must go through a bottleneck period of several years: half a year to learn technology, one year to practice execution, and one and a half years to practice mindset. The most important thing is to minimize losses during the bottleneck period. If you are willing to spend time, energy, and good at summarizing, with a good mentor to accompany you, then your career in the crypto world will be much simpler. The stars shine, as always.
You will definitely gain something. Helping others is like helping yourself. There is no bad market, only bad operations. I hope that no matter how the market changes, we can continue to move forward together and smile at the crypto world after ten years.
Once you have experienced great adversity, you will realize that the past is not just a memory. The above are some of my insights from ten years of trading cryptocurrency. They are heartfelt words. After going through many detours, I gradually understood. Today, I share my summary with everyone, hoping it can help you better understand cryptocurrency trading.
Trading cryptocurrency can lead from great losses to great wealth!
First, about returns.
Assuming you have 1 million, when your returns reach 100%, your assets will be 2 million. If you then lose 50%, it means your assets will return to 1 million. Clearly, losing 50% is much easier than making a 100% profit.
Second, about price fluctuations.
If you have 1 million, and on the first day it rises by 10%, your assets will reach 1.1 million. However, if the second day it drops by 10%, your assets will remain 990,000. Conversely, if it drops by 10% on the first day and rises by 10% on the second day, your assets will still be 990,000.
Third, about volatility.
If you have 1 million, earn 40% in the first year, lose 20% in the second year, earn 40% in the third year, lose 20% in the fourth year, earn 40% in the fifth year, and lose 20% in the sixth year, your assets will remain at 1.405 million. The annualized return over six years is only 5.83%, which is even lower than the coupon rate of five-year treasury bonds.
Fourth, about earning 1% daily.
If you have 1 million and can earn 1% daily, then after 250 days, your assets can reach 12.032 million, and after 500 days, your assets will reach 145 million.
Fifth, about achieving 200% annually.
If you have 1 million, and if you achieve a 200% return over five consecutive years, then after five years, your assets will reach 243 million. However, such high returns are difficult to sustain.
Sixth, about tenfold in ten years.
If you have 1 million and hope to reach 10 million in ten years, 1 billion in twenty years, and 10 billion in thirty years, then you need to achieve an annualized return of 25.89%.
Seventh, about averaging down.
Assuming you buy a certain coin for 10 yuan with 10,000 yuan, and it has now dropped to 5 yuan, if you buy another 10,000 yuan, your average cost will drop to 6.67 yuan, rather than the 7.5 yuan you might assume.
Eighth, about holding costs.
If you have 1 million and make a profit of 10% on a certain coin, when you decide to sell, you can retain 100,000 yuan worth of shares, which will bring your holding cost to zero. Then you can hold it long-term without pressure. If you are extremely optimistic about this coin and retain 200,000 yuan worth of shares, you will find your profit will increase from 10% to 100%. However, don’t be complacent, because if the coin drops 50% later, you might still incur losses.
Ninth, about asset allocation.
With risk-free asset A (annual return 5%) and risky asset B (return -20% to 40%), if you have 1 million, you can invest 800,000 in risk-free asset A and 200,000 in risky asset B. Your worst annual return would be zero, and the best return could be 12%. This is the prototype of the CPPI technique applied to principal-protected funds.
Summary of practical experience: The 'secret weapon' of trading strategies.
After many years of struggling in the crypto world, I have accumulated some practical trading strategies. The following mnemonics are the crystallization of my personal practical experience.
Entry section.
Testing the waters in the crypto world, prepare to act first; enter steadily, and refuse to rush in.
Consolidation section.
Low-level consolidation reaching new lows is the right time for heavy buying; high-level consolidation and rising means decisive selling without hesitation.
Volatility section.
Sell at a peak, enter quickly during a plunge; watch and wait during consolidation, reduce trading.
Consolidation means sideways instead of down; hold tight to your shares, and the rise may be just a second away; during a rapid rise, beware of a crash and be ready to secure profits at any time; a slow decline is a good opportunity to gradually add positions.
Buying and selling timing section.
Do not sell on a rise; do not buy on a plunge; do not trade during consolidation.
Buy on a bearish candle, sell on a bullish candle; operate in reverse to stand out.
Buy during big drops in the morning, sell during big rises in the morning; don’t chase highs in the afternoon rises, and buy after big drops in the afternoon the next day; don’t cut losses on big drops in the morning, and when the price is stable, take a rest; if stuck, average down to seek break-even, and avoid excessive greed.
Risk awareness section.
A calm lake surface can generate high waves; there may be big waves ahead; after a big rise, there must be a pullback, and the K-line shows a triangle for many days.
In an uptrend, look for support; in a downtrend, look for resistance.
Full position trading is a big taboo; stubbornness is not feasible; in the face of uncertainty, know when to stop, and grasp the timing of entry and exit.
Trading cryptocurrency is essentially about managing mindset; greed and fear are the worst enemies. Be cautious when chasing highs and lows, and maintain a calm and composed mind.
In addition to the mnemonic, I have also organized several super practical trading methods that both beginners and experienced players can benefit from.
Volatility trading method.
Most markets are in a consolidation pattern. Utilizing high selling and low buying within a range is the foundation for stable profits. Using BOLL indicators and box theory, combined with technical indicators and patterns, can accurately identify resistance and support. Follow short-term buying and selling principles, and avoid greed.
Breakout trading method.
After a long period of consolidation, the market will choose a direction. Entering after a trend change can yield quick profits. However, you need to have precise judgment on trend changes and maintain a steady mindset, avoiding greed and fear.
Unilateral trend trading method.
When the market breaks out of consolidation, it will form a unilateral trend. Trading with the trend is key to profit. Enter during pullbacks or rebounds, referencing K-lines, moving averages, BOLL, trend lines, and other indicators to master the situation.
Resistance and support trading method.
When the market encounters key resistance and support levels, it often faces obstacles or gains support. Entering at this time is a common strategy. Use trend lines, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and parabolic indicators to accurately judge resistance and support levels.
Pullback and rebound trading method.
After significant rises and falls, there will be a short-term pullback or rebound, so seize the opportunity to profit easily. Mainly based on K-line patterns, good market sense can help you accurately grasp highs and lows.
Time period trading method.
Morning and afternoon sessions have small fluctuations, suitable for conservative investors. Although the profit-taking time is long, it is easier to grasp the market; evening and early morning sessions have large fluctuations, suitable for aggressive investors who can make quick profits but face high difficulty and strict requirements for skills and judgment.
I hope these experiences and insights can help you. Remember, in the crypto world, the most important thing is to maintain a calm mindset and rigorous operational discipline. May you achieve success in your future investments.
Bitcoin trading, large and small cycles determine entry points, returns multiply tenfold.
Previously, I mentioned entry points in trading systems, and the choice of entry point is crucial for trading.
Those with practical trading experience know that the market often shows false breakouts, or the entry point is poor, leading to large stop-losses. In such cases, you can only reduce the entry capital, as a big market often yields lesser profits.
Everyone needs to summarize their own entry methods. Do not mention those who enter based on arbitrary feelings.
The personal method I commonly use is to combine large and small cycles to find entry opportunities.
Because we are trend traders, the method must include trend judgment, and then choose the trading level based on your trading style.
So here I recommend using large, medium, and small cycles for judgment.
1. Large cycle: Determine direction and analyze trends to see if it is in consolidation or a trend. Only operate during the initiation and continuation phases of a trend, with consolidation being a time to wait.
2. Medium cycle: operational level, holding level.
3. Small cycle: entry level, stop-loss level.
Choose large, medium, and small cycles according to your trading habits.
The following diagram reveals the method of combining large and small cycles. It is said in the industry to follow the large, counter the medium, and follow the small.
Understanding trading in cryptocurrency is a process of going from loss to break-even to profit. It’s all about focusing without being sidetracked and not being greedy for various profit models; steadfastly adhering to one trading system will eventually turn it into your ATM.
#巨鲸动向 #币安合约将上线JELLYJELLY
Hello everyone, I am Guayan. I have been navigating the market for many years and am deeply aware of the opportunities and traps within. If your investments are not going well and you are not reconciled to the losses.
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