$1000SATS ——In-depth analysis and strategy
Current SATS price is close to new lows, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but the operator's true intentions need to be judged in conjunction with market conditions, position data, and on-chain movements. Here are the key analyses:
## **1. The possibility of the operator completely liquidating longs (70%)**
### **1. Signal supports liquidation logic**
- **Price approaching new lows**:
- Technical indicators show a downward trend, retail long confidence has collapsed, and stop-loss orders are likely to trigger.
- If it breaks below previous lows, it may trigger panic selling, allowing the operator to buy back at low prices.
- **Contract open interest still high**:
- Position volume has not significantly decreased, indicating that there are still many long positions not exited, giving the operator motivation to continue pushing down.
- **Funding rates may turn negative**:
- If the longs are forced to liquidate, funding rates may turn negative again, allowing the operator to buy at low prices.
### **2. How does the operator execute liquidation?**
- **Sudden acceleration of decline**:
- Rapidly breaking below previous lows, triggering strong liquidations of longs, forming a 'long squeeze'.
- **False rebound to lure longs before crashing**:
- First a slight rebound (5%-10%) to attract dip buyers, then suddenly cancel orders and crash the price.
- **In conjunction with Bitcoin's decline**:
- If BTC breaks down, SATS may follow with a crash, allowing the operator to harvest profits through market sentiment.
---
## **2. Situations where the operator may reverse and push up (30%)**
### **1. Counter-pullback conditions**
- **On-chain shows the operator is accumulating**:
- Large amounts of funds flowing out of exchanges into cold wallets (indicating the operator is acquiring at low prices).
- **Market is extremely fearful**:
- Funding rates have turned significantly negative, with a high proportion of shorts; the operator may reverse and short squeeze.
- **Bitcoin sudden rebound**:
- If BTC stabilizes and rebounds, SATS may follow suit, with the operator taking advantage to push up the price.
### **2. Counter-pullback strategy**
- **Rapid V-shaped reversal**:
- Sudden increase in volume to push up, catching shorts off guard and forcing them to close positions.
- **Ladder-like increase**:
- Gradually push up the price, allowing shorts to stop loss gradually, avoiding sharp fluctuations that attract regulatory attention.
---
## **3. Operational strategies**
### **1. Short term (1-3 days)**
- **If it continues to decline and breaks new lows**:
- **Wait and see**, do not easily buy the dip, wait for stabilization signals (such as a breakout bullish candle + decreasing position volume).
- **If there is a sudden rebound (5%-10%)**:
- **Beware of traps for longs**, observe trading volume, a low-volume rebound may be a trap.
### **2. Medium term (1 week)**
- **If the price stabilizes and rebounds with volume**:
- Can cautiously try going long, with stop loss set 5% below previous lows.
- **If there is continued decline without rebound**:
- Wait for lower price levels (e.g., 20%-30% lower than current price) before considering a phased entry into spot trading.
### **3. Extreme risk control**
- **Never hold onto positions**: SATS is highly volatile; any losses exceeding 5% in either direction should trigger an immediate stop loss.
- **Avoid high leverage contracts**: Under the control of the operators, the risk of liquidation is extremely high; prioritize spot trading.
---
## **4. Key Monitoring Indicators**
1. **On-chain data** (Are large holders buying at low prices?)
2. **Exchange inventory** (Is there continuous outflow?)
3. **Bitcoin trend** (If BTC crashes, SATS may accelerate its decline.)
4. **Funding rates** (If they turn negative, it may indicate a bottom is near.)
---
## **Conclusion: The operator is more likely to continue liquidation, but beware of counter-pullbacks**
- **70% probability**: The operator will continue to push down, thoroughly wash out the longs, and create panic to buy at low prices.
- **30% probability**: If the market is extremely pessimistic, the operator may reverse and push up to squeeze shorts.
- **Best strategy**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, waiting for clearer trend signals (breakout with volume or stabilization), and avoid blind operations.
**⚠️ Warning: SATS is highly controlled by the operator, with severe short-term fluctuations; strict stop losses are essential!**
