What’s going on here! The largest divergence in Bitcoin on-chain has appeared; what are the long-term whales doing? This data has left me stunned!
Is the cryptocurrency market starting to reverse? Will Bitcoin rise or fall next? Let’s take a look together.
First of all, Bitcoin has shown the largest divergence in history on-chain. After seeing these two images, I believe you will be as confused as I am.
The first chart shows the holding situation of long-term Bitcoin holders. You can clearly see that each time it reaches the bull market peak, the yellow long-term holding volume decreases, as these old players begin to take profits; after all, they have made a lot of money, so selling is normal.
Now, as we can see, when Bitcoin's price exceeded 90,000 this year, these long-term players started reducing their positions again. Could this be a signal of a market peak? Hmm... It’s possible, but last year at the beginning when Bitcoin reached 70,000, there was also a similar sell-off. However, this year, Bitcoin reached a maximum of 110,000, an increase of 50%. Nevertheless, there is indeed a portion of long-term whales that are selling.
So the question arises, why did I say at the beginning that this is a divergence? Because if you look at the second chart showing the total Bitcoin holdings on exchanges, the platform's Bitcoin inventory is still continuously decreasing as people keep buying it. This has previously been a super bullish situation, indicating that large holders on-chain are buying like crazy.
Hey? Now that you've seen this, aren't you all confused? How come these two data points give completely opposite results? That's right, this is what I mentioned at the beginning: the largest divergence in Bitcoin on-chain data has appeared, and the reason for this divergence is that the cryptocurrency market is no longer just two parties participating, but now three.
Previously, the cryptocurrency market was a game of old and new players. In a bear market, old players hoarded coins, and then in a bull market, they sold them at high prices to new retail investors. The two types of on-chain data were relatively consistent.
However, this cycle is different; now there is a third party, Wall Street, which is a giant presence. So even though long-term players are undoubtedly slowly taking profits, we can see the on-chain data, but if you look at the second piece of data, the new buyers from Wall Street are gobbling up these people's chips. They are buying large amounts from exchanges and transferring them to large institutions' cold wallets, making the coins in exchanges increasingly scarce.
Recently, Goldman Sachs disclosed that it holds 2 billion USD in Bitcoin ETFs, while Barclays or Bridgewater Associates have also announced holdings of hundreds of millions in Bitcoin. This shows that Wall Street funds or investment banks are personally getting involved, leading the Bitcoin ETF to reach a scale of 117 billion within just one year of launch, averaging 300 million bought per day, which is quite alarming.
So I don't know whether this is good or bad. The on-chain whales are selling, but Wall Street is buying. Thus, when the cryptocurrency market rises, the whales sell, and when it falls, Wall Street buys again. This tug-of-war has been going on for two months. However, the supply from the whales is limited, just like last year; when the whales have sold out and there is nothing left to sell, the market might start to rise again. Now, with Wall Street's involvement, the connection between the cryptocurrency market and the US stocks is deepening, so the upcoming movements in the US stock market can actually provide us with considerable guidance. Currently, both NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have broken through historical highs after two months, marking their third attempt to break through. The previous two attempts failed.
As the saying goes, there is a first and a second, but not a third or a fourth. The probability of this third breakthrough being a real breakthrough could reach 70%. Once the US stock market establishes an upward trend, it will trigger at least a small bull market lasting for nearly half a year, which will also drive the cryptocurrency market upward. This is very crucial, so everyone must pay close attention. Sui finally accumulated after 2 days! Can it still rise?
It seems that Sui is currently forming a W-shaped bottom, and this wave is expected to rebound to around 3.7. Now let me share my operational thoughts:
Personally, I plan to take profit on half when it approaches 3.4, to recoup some funds, as our cost for Sui is at 3.2 and 3.4. Let's take profit at 3.2 first, so if there’s a pullback, we still have ammo to add positions, and then for Sui bought at 3.4, we can gamble around the neckline at about 3.7.
Yesterday, the resistance for ETH was around 2750, which was successfully reached by noon today. I have already exited my short-term position and am currently observing whether there will be a larger pullback to continue entering for swing trades. A relatively safe re-entry position would be just above 2600, like around 2615, while those with a more aggressive approach can look at around 2670.
Personally, I am holding 70% in long positions, planning to sell at least until the Prague upgrade in April. The remaining 30% is for short-term trades; I buy some during larger pullbacks for rebounds. After all, we are currently in a monkey market, with coin prices jumping up and down daily without actual increases, just holding coins won't make money. This is more suitable for arbitrage—buy low, sell high. We have arbitraged at least 6 times with Sui already; I was stuck for 2 days this time but it has come back, turning losses into profits. Congratulations to everyone~
Let’s talk about recent feelings: Sol and BSC.
Although SOL has plummeted badly, the purely meme tokens that are interesting and valuable will still be recognized by the market. Currently, the most stable play in BSC is AI concepts.
In the meme, a lot of tokens are being drained by broccoli. The outcome is still unclear, but it's down to a choice of three. It's too chaotic. In the end, whoever can go to the main site will be the final champion.
To make money on the BSC chain, buy low market cap, high popularity tokens; it’s definitely profitable. Slightly higher market cap tokens are likely to be at the peak. As long as the broccoli farce doesn’t end, the BNB chain is hard to play. Currently, BSC is in a chaotic era, with unclear main narrative and poor user experience; past experiences do not apply. If Binance Alpha doesn’t change personnel, it will be hard to break through.
Good strategy: launch on the Four platform, trading competitions, winners with high popularity are filtered by Binance Alpha, and then listed on Binance Exchange. There is currently no system in place; we’ll see how CZ operates.
I believe everyone following the market today knows that a significant event has occurred: the long-awaited π Pi has launched after 7 years! That’s right, it has launched!
The launch of Pi has a significant impact on the current market and is receiving extremely high attention. I won't go into more detailed introductions about π; let's talk about Shiguang's views.
The total amount of Pi is 100 billion, with a current total supply of 9.705 billion and a current circulating supply of 6.308 billion, making the circulating ratio 6.31%.
According to this data, the current price is 1.334 USD, the circulating market cap is 9.02 billion, and the fully diluted market cap is 143 billion. What does this concept mean?
According to the ranking data disclosed by Feixiaohao, the current total market cap ranks third at USDT, with a current supply market cap of 143.527 billion, while the total supply market cap of π tokens is comparable to the current supply market cap of USDT, even higher than the total valuation of SOL and BNB, ranking in the top five.
This data is a bit scary. Did it peak right after going live? Or is this just the beginning? It directly took down BNB and SOL.
However, OKX has implemented regional restrictions, and it is not yet open to the Chinese region. Many people cannot trade and can’t even search for Bitget, which has launched contract trading pairs. However, ZhiMaGate has launched the spot trading pair for Pi.
Many people ask Shiguang if the account has π tokens, but a common issue is that they are all stuck on step 9, which is the final step. They can't withdraw or trade tokens, and after migrating to the mainnet, there is still a 14-day waiting period, which means that many people, although holding Pi tokens, are currently in a state where they cannot trade normally.
However, through conversations, their thoughts are surprisingly uniform: after waiting all these years, a few more days don't matter, and since it was obtained for free through a mobile phone, there's no heartache. As long as there’s profit, it’s fine.
Moreover, some even say they want to buy and continue to add positions, and have consulted Shiguang's opinion on what price to enter.
Shiguang believes that there is no need to rush into new investments. Although the recent market has been quite good, with many new tokens showing strong rebounds, Shiguang really cannot provide much advice regarding Pi.
The current price has already exceeded Shiguang's expected value. Even if I want to invest in new projects, I will wait until the hype has passed and consider entering after a pullback. Shiguang’s expected price range is around 0.6-0.8.
I won't consider investing in new projects beyond this range for now, as I've suffered too many losses in the past. Currently, I have more than 10 new coins that I can't let go of, so I will still be cautious about new investments. Of course, when there’s space for swing trading, I will exit in batches.
In summary, do not blindly follow market sentiment, always operate with a clear and calm mind. There are opportunities and dangers coexisting, so it's best to be cautious.
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