Bitcoin is going through a moment of uncertainty. After reaching a peak above $108,000 in December 2024, the price corrected and today, March 25, 2025, is around $87,000 (according to recent market data). This raises the question: has the bull run ended or is there still fuel to burn? Let's analyze on-chain signals, the macro context, and market sentiment to understand what may come next.
1. On-Chain Indicators: What Do the Data Say?
MVRV Z-Score: This indicator compares the market value of BTC with the 'realized' value (average purchase price of holders). In past bull runs, such as 2017 and 2021, the Z-Score reached levels above 7 or 8, signaling a peak. Today, it is neutral, around 2.5 to 3 (estimate based on recent trends). This suggests that BTC is not overvalued yet, leaving room for further increases.
Exchanges Reserves: About 2.5 million BTC are on exchanges, a drop of 17% since the beginning of 2025 (according to Forbes). This shows that holders are pulling coins to cold wallets, a sign of long-term confidence. At the peaks of bull runs, the flow reverses: more BTC goes to exchanges to sell. We have not yet seen this en masse.
1+ Year HODL: The percentage of BTC that has been inactive for over a year is high, close to 70% of the supply (typical data from on-chain analyses). This reinforces that large players are not dumping – a peak usually comes when these HODLers start to take profits.
Verdict: On-chain data does not scream 'peak'. The market is more about accumulation than rampant euphoria.
2. Macroeconomic Context: Favorable or Unfavorable Winds?
ETFs and Institutions: Since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional flow has been a driver of the bull run. In January 2025, ETFs totaled $1.9 billion in net inflows in the first week (CoinDCX). Despite a pause at the end of 2024, adoption remains strong, with price forecasts between $180,000 and $200,000 by the end of the year (analysts like those from Token Metrics). This supports further increases.
U.S. Politics: Trump's possession in January 2025 brought optimism with promises of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve'. However, the 0.25% interest rate cut in December 2024 by the Fed, with a hawkish tone for 2025, cooled the spirits. Less liquidity may slow down BTC's momentum.
2024 Halving: The cut in issuance in April 2024 traditionally pushes the price up in the following months. Historically, peaks come 12 to 18 months later (2013, 2017, 2021). We are 11 months away from the halving – if the pattern holds, the peak could be between September and December 2025.
Verdict: The macro situation is mixed. Institutional factors and the halving cycle favor further increases, but the Fed could be an obstacle.
3. Market Sentiment: Euphoria or Fear?
Google Trends: Searches for 'Bitcoin' are at 38, well below the peak of 100 in 2021 (Forbes). This indicates that retail investors are not yet in the typical frenzy of a peak.
Posts on X: Analysts on X, such as @antonioerneto and @btc_counterflow, say that the bull run started in 2022/2023 and could last until the end of 2025, with a strong phase coming. Others, like @KiYoungJu from CryptoQuant, believe the bullish cycle is cooling off. The consensus is divided, but there is no widespread panic.
Current Correction: The 28% drop since the peak of $108,000 (cited by @caueconomy) is normal in bull runs – in 2021, BTC dropped 30% several times before rising again. It is not a bear market yet.
Verdict: Sentiment is cautious, but far from the euphoria or despair that marks the end of a cycle.
Final Analysis: Has it Ended or Does it Have Ground Left?
The bull run does not seem to be over. On-chain indicators show room for growth, the halving cycle suggests a peak between the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2025 (around $150,000-$200,000, as predicted by Token Metrics and KuCoin), and sentiment is not in 'sell everything'. But there are risks: if BTC loses supports like $82,000-$83,000 (mentioned by @pumpbios), it could correct further, seeking $77,000 or less before rising again.
For you, the investor:
If you are in profit: Consider locking in some gains, but don’t run away – the cycle may have another strong leg.
If you want to enter: Accumulating on dips (like $80,000-$83,000) could be a solid play for the long term.
Keep an eye on: MVRV rising significantly, flow to exchanges exploding, or the Fed tightening more are warning signs.
BTC still has ground ahead, but the peak is approaching. What do you think of this analysis? Are you already positioned for the next move?