Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment, recently asked, "What are the biggest structural risks to Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years?" This question garnered significant attention and responses from investors, experts, and industry leaders, highlighting urgent concerns.
One of the most frequently mentioned risks is the threat posed by quantum computing. Nic Carter, a general partner at Castle Island Ventures, succinctly responded: "Quantum." His answer received widespread approval.
Future quantum computers could break the encryption algorithms that secure Bitcoin, such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which protects Bitcoin wallets. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer appears, it could forge digital signatures, allowing attackers to steal Bitcoin from any wallet with an open public key.
According to research by River, a quantum computer with 1 million qubits could break Bitcoin addresses. Microsoft claims that its new chip, named Majorana, paves the way for this achievement. This raises an urgent question: how long does Bitcoin have before it needs to become quantum-resistant?
Although the threat of quantum computing is clear, some argue that the more pressing challenge is whether the Bitcoin community can reach consensus and implement quantum-resistant solutions in time.
However, BlockTower founder Ari Paul pointed out that the Bitcoin network faces more pressing risks as the cost of attacks has dropped significantly.
The Risk of Conflict Between the Decentralized Nature of Bitcoin and Regulatory Oversight
Beyond technical challenges, some investors are concerned that government and institutional involvement will pose the biggest risk to Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years.
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that in the last five years, Bitcoin ownership by private companies, public companies, governments, and ETFs has surged more than 12-fold, from 210,000 BTC to over 2.6 million BTC. As a result, regulatory intervention could introduce legal pressures or unwanted changes to Bitcoin's fundamental operations.
Discussions triggered by Lyn Alden's questions highlight risks that could trigger black swan events for Bitcoin. This also reflects the growing awareness among industry leaders and investors about Bitcoin's systemic risks in an era increasingly influenced by political stability and artificial intelligence.