Brothers, yesterday the crypto world was filled with 'laughter and joy', everyone in the group was showing profits, and the square was full of 'I said it would rise 10 days ago' prophets. But seasoned investors understand—when the big players push the price up, the retail investors go wild, and new material for the meat grinder has arrived!



Superficial prosperity

The day before yesterday and yesterday, BTC rose 3660 points for two consecutive days, ETH had three consecutive bullish days, with a total increase of 116 points, and SOL surged 6% in a single day, while altcoins were flying around, but 99% were 'one-day trips'. Refer to my previous article (Can altcoins still be played? Don't be cannon fodder!).

However, despite the good-looking trend, there has been some unfavorable change in the short term.

Danger signal: The main force is 'unloading'!

Signal 1: Abnormal fund movement in exchanges

  • On-chain data: Nearly 10,000 BTC flowed into exchanges within 24 hours, and as the price rebounded, those trapped rushed to cut losses!

  • Retail investor psychology: Afraid to hold when it rises, stubbornly holding when it falls—classic retail behavior!



Signal 2: Trump's 'Pump Trap'

According to PANews on March 25, U.S. President Trump posted 'FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT!!!' on Truth Social and X platform this morning, causing the Solana chain's FIGHT token to skyrocket twice in a short time, with prices briefly breaking $0.0018, now showing a 24-hour increase of over 60%.


Most players are attracted to this market by such news, dreaming that catching one will make them rich overnight. By the time you see the news, it's already the moment to take over! Therefore, I personally do not recommend acting based on these messages.

  • A bloody lesson: News followers = professionals standing guard at high positions; those who make money in the crypto world are always the ones who ambush in advance!



Signal 3: Technical 'Death Cross' (See image below 👇)


The previous trend looked good, but there has been some unfavorable change in the short term. What exactly is this change? Let's take a look at the chart:


The shaded part in the chart is the 30F center. A to B is a departure from the center, and B to C is a pullback to the center. It's clear that C did not return to the center, which constitutes the third type of sell signal at the 30F center. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a small reversal to a larger one at the 4H level. In other words, if it appears, it suggests that this small reversal to a large one may be established. Starting from 88750, we need to look for a downward movement at the 4H level, at least three segments of the 30F level trend, with the direction being down. Currently, we are in the first segment of the 30F down, with two segments remaining.

This is how the large-scale chart should be drawn:


This 4H upward segment starting from 81114 has ended, and the future pullback will be of the same level, but the extent is unknown. Where will it drop to? Currently, we can only predict that 84933 and 84095 are two critical unknowns, especially 84095.

Therefore, we should first look for a pullback during the day, and we'll discuss finding unknowns once it falls into the 84K range. It's best to wait for the three segments of the 30F trend within the 4H to complete before entering. Don't jump in at the slightest pullback; it's easy to get trapped. Keep the rhythm right.


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