I am Xiao Qingw, a financial analyst focusing on global macroeconomic research for 8 years. Today we will deeply analyze the core contradictions of the current global capital market—the 'reciprocal tariff' policy initiated by the Trump administration is reshaping the logic of global asset pricing. This trade war, recorded in history, is not only a reflection of major power games but also a touchstone for assessing the cognitive level of investors.

1. Global asset revaluation triggered by the tariff war

  1. Structural differentiation in the A-share market

    • As of April 7, at noon, over 3,000 A-share stocks fell by more than 9.5%, with 1,446 stocks hitting their daily limit down, and market panic reached an extreme. However, it's worth noting that sectors like food and beverages, public utilities, and blood products showed overall strength.

    • Qiao Peitao, manager of Founder Fubon Fund, pointed out thatChina's manufacturing advantages remain, with short-term focus on high dividends.

      (Electricity, highways, banks), domestic demand(Real estate infrastructure, aviation, military industry)and so on..



  2. Liquidity crisis in the cryptocurrency market

    • Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $81,200 on the evening of April 6, retreating more than 20% from the March peak. This resonates with the simultaneous plunge of global risk assets, reflecting that the cryptocurrency market has not completely detached from the influences of the traditional financial system.

    • However, in the long term, Professor Zhao Zhongxiu's research shows that the tariff war has accelerated the global de-dollarization process, and Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as 'digital gold' will highlight its value in the restructuring of the monetary system.

2. The underlying logic of Trump's tariff policy

  1. The essence of political gaming

    • The Trump administration uses tariffs as a 'strategic bargaining chip,' attempting to force countries to make concessions in technology, geopolitics, and other areas through trade friction. This 'transactional' thinking is closely related to the core demands of US manufacturing return and reducing fiscal deficits.

    • However, Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University warns that protectionist policies will weaken the international competitiveness of US companies, ultimately leading to a rupture in the global supply chain and a spiral of rising inflation.

  2. The cognitive gap of market expectations

    • Although rumors of a 'tariff suspension' circulated in the market on the evening of April 6, the global capital market's plunge on April 7 proved this to be false information. Historical data shows that Trump's policies are highly variable, with tariff policy adjustments occurring as many as 17 times in 2024, and investors should be wary of the 'wolf is coming' effect.

3. Interpretation of key technical signals

  1. The trend breakdown and repair of Bitcoin

    • The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows that after the price broke below $81,200, it triggered programmatic selling, and the RSI indicator deviated from the bottom divergence pattern, indicating the start of a new round of downward cycles. If it breaks below the previous low of $76,560, it may test the $70,000 level.

    • However, from the monthly perspective, Bitcoin is still in an upward channel since 2020, and long-term holders should pay attention to the appearance of bottom divergence signals on the weekly level.

4. Investor response strategies

  1. Cryptocurrency strategies

    • Long position unwind: Reduce positions when a bottom divergence appears on the 30-minute chart, wait for the price to rebound to around $80,000 to gradually buy back and lower the holding cost.

    • Short position strategy: If the price directly breaks below $76,560, take profits first, wait for a rebound on the 30-minute chart before re-entering, aiming down to $70,000.

  2. Key points for risk control

    • Maintain over 50% cash reserves to cope with extreme market fluctuations.

    • Establish a 'three-tier position' system: 30% core assets (gold, US bonds), 40% satellite positions (industry ETFs), 30% flexible funds (cryptocurrencies).

5. Prospects for historic opportunities

The current market is in the second stage of the 'panic - despair - rationality' cycle. Historical experience shows that each major policy shock brings opportunities for excess returns.

  • During the China-US trade war in 2018, gold prices rose by 28%, and Bitcoin soared from $3,200 to $14,000.

  • After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, energy stocks averaged a 57% increase, and military ETFs doubled within the year.


We expect that when the market panic sentiment is released, the following areas will rebound first:

  1. Safe-haven assets: Gold, Treasury futures

  2. Sectors benefiting from policy: New infrastructure, domestic substitution

  3. Oversold growth stocks: Semiconductors, innovative drugs


As a seasoned market researcher, I firmly believe: crises harbor opportunities, but only investors with upgraded cognition can seize them.
Risk warning: The above analysis is based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.