Market analyst Timothy Peterson (author of the Metcalfe's Law as a Bitcoin Valuation Model) points out that the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market (defined as a decline of more than 20% from the historical high) is 'moderate' in both magnitude and duration. His research shows that historically, only 4 bear markets have been more severe than the current situation (2018, 2021, 2022, 2024), and this round of decline is supported by underlying trends, with BTC prices unlikely to drop below $50,000, while $80,000 serves as a critical support level.
Tariff War Impact Risk Assets Bitcoin Hedge Aura Fades
U.S. President Trump has raised tariffs on multiple countries, raising concerns about a trade war, leading to a decline in risk assets across the board. Peterson points out that Bitcoin has weakened in tandem with U.S. stocks, reflecting challenges to the narrative of Bitcoin as a 'digital safe-haven asset.' Glassnode data corroborates market panic: the proportion of short-term holders (holding for less than a week) has plummeted from 5.9% during the bull market in November 2024 to 2.3%, indicating a rapid withdrawal of speculative funds.
A 20-40% rebound may occur after mid-April
Peterson predicts that Bitcoin may test support within the next 30 days and then initiate a 20-40% rebound after April 15. 'If the price reverses near the 120-day cycle line, the market will regain confidence to push for new highs.' This view conflicts with the CryptoQuant report, which indicates that retail participation has saturated and lacks new capital to drive short-term upward momentum.
On-chain data reveals retail exit, institutions become market leaders
Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard states that trade war pressures will persist until the international negotiation window in April 2025. During this period, institutional investors dominate the market, with retail participation dropping to rock bottom. CryptoQuant data shows that 85% of retail investors have fully invested, and subsequent buying will need to rely on institutions or a shift in macro policies.
Historical Cycle Comparison: Bear Market Average Duration 87 Days
Peterson's statistics of historical bear market data indicate that since 2018, the average bear market cycle for Bitcoin has been 87 days, with a maximum decline of 73% (in 2022). The current pullback (approximately 20%) and duration (30 days) are both well below historical averages. The Peterson model predicts that unless a black swan event occurs, this round of adjustment will end within 90 days, after which it will enter a new high cycle.
