Does $SOL reflect market optimism?

Historical data shows that an increase in leveraged long positions does not necessarily drive up prices. For example, in July and September 2024, there were significant increases in leveraged positions while prices fell. Some large traders, although ultimately profitable, have a much higher risk tolerance and operational ability than the average investor.

Moreover, due to the relatively low cost of borrowing Bitcoin (approximately 3.14% annualized), there are opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage. For instance, the interest rate spread between spot and perpetual contracts (funding rate is 4.5%) can be profited from using a 'spot + short futures' strategy, indicating that some positions may be of an arbitrage nature rather than simply long.

Even assuming that the $1.48 billion leveraged long position on Bitfinex is primarily bullish, data from other exchanges shows differing market sentiment. For example, the demand for leveraged long positions in Bitcoin on OKX has significantly decreased within the same 30 days, with a long-short ratio of only 15, marking the lowest in over three months.

Looking back at history, when the market is overly optimistic, the long-short ratio on OKX has soared above 40 (the last instance was at the end of February when BTC broke above $105,000); conversely, when the ratio is below 5, it often reflects strong bearish sentiment. Currently, while the ratio is not extremely pessimistic, it indicates hesitation and divergence in the market regarding the upward momentum of Bitcoin.