According to the latest market dynamics on March 21, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) today shows a trend of consolidation with fluctuations, characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments in the technical aspects and market emotions:
Technical analysis
Short-term support and resistance: The current ETH price fluctuates in the range of $2000 to $2227, with $2000 being the key support level (if broken, it may drop to $1700), and $2227 being a strong short-term resistance level. The 4-hour chart shows a gap between ETH and the 5-day moving average, necessitating caution regarding the risk of a pullback during the early morning hours.
Indicator signals: The daily MACD and KDJ show a golden cross upwards, but the RSI remains around 33, indicating a short-term need for oversold recovery. The BOLL middle band is opening upwards, suggesting that rebound momentum has not fully released.
Market sentiment and capital flow
Institutional views diverge: Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its 2025 ETH price expectation to $4000, believing that Layer 2 competition has diluted ETH's value; however, some analysts point out that ETH needs to form a double bottom structure similar to that of 2018-2020 to confirm a reversal.
On-chain signals: In the past 5 days, whales have cumulatively increased their holdings by 420,000 ETH (approximately $811 million), but spot ETFs continue to experience outflows (e.g., BlackRock had a single-day outflow of $36.37 million), indicating a divergence in operational direction between institutions and retail investors.
Operational advice
Short-term strategy: If the price stabilizes above $2000, consider light long positions with a target of $2227; if it rebounds and encounters resistance around $2150, consider shorting on the high.
Risk warning: Close attention is needed for the pullback confirmation before 4 AM, as well as the impact of the evening US stock ETF fund flows on market sentiment.
In summary, ETH may continue its consolidation pattern today, with a game between technical recovery and institutional bearish expectations; it is recommended to focus on range trading and control positions to manage volatility.
