The Federal Reserve remains steady, and BTC breaks through 85,000!
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, which aligns with market expectations, but slow down the balance sheet reduction pace (the limit for Treasury bond reduction decreased from 25 billion/month to 5 billion/month), releasing signals of liquidity easing! U.S. stocks and gold both rose, with Bitcoin also surging, breaking through the 85,000 USD mark.
Key points overview:
1️⃣ Rate cut expectations delayed but not vanished: The dot plot indicates two rate cuts may still occur in 2025 (totaling 50 BP), with the first cut possibly starting in June. Powell stated that he is 'not in a hurry to act in May,' but retains policy flexibility.
2️⃣ Inflation risk is rising: Core PCE inflation expectations are raised to 2.8%, tariff impacts are characterized as 'one-time,' but the market worries about long-term transmission. If inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, BTC may become a new favorite for inflation hedging.
3️⃣ Clouds of economic recession: The Federal Reserve has lowered GDP growth to 1.7%, acknowledging that the risk of recession is 'increasing but not high.' Under heightened uncertainty, funds may accelerate flow into decentralized assets as a safe haven.
In-depth analysis of the impact on the crypto space:
🔥 Expectations of liquidity easing: Slower balance sheet reduction + suspense over rate cuts, liquidity gates are slightly loosening, benefiting risk assets. BTC and ETH may continue the 'easing trade' logic, with altcoin rotations expected!
💣 Stagflation speculation: If economic slowdown + stubborn inflation occurs, the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' will strengthen, potentially reaching a historical high for gold (3050 USD/ounce), with market cap ceilings being surpassed again.
⚠️ Beware of increased volatility: The Federal Reserve's policy shift still depends on data, with a 75% chance of interest rate cuts in June; external variables like tariffs and crude oil may trigger short-term corrections.
Operational advice:
- Short-term accumulation of BTC, ETH at lower prices, focusing on leading Layer1/Layer2 ecosystems.
- Focus on the Federal Reserve's June decision in the medium to long term; if interest rate cuts occur, the Altcoin season may fully explode!
- Risk warning: High policy uncertainty, leverage must be cautious, keep some ammunition to deal with black swans.
👉 Forward reminder: The Federal Reserve's 'dovish' voice has sounded, is a new round of market trends in the crypto space starting? Follow me for real-time interpretations!
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