BTC experienced a surge within 12 hours recently (March 20, 2025), which may be driven by multiple factors:
1. Technical breakthroughs and market sentiment shift
Breakthrough of key resistance levels: Bitcoin has broken through long-term moving averages (such as the 200-day moving average), converting resistance into support and triggering technical buying. Such breakthroughs are often seen as bullish signals, attracting short-term traders and algorithmic trading.
Market sentiment is high: The greed sentiment indicator shows the market has shifted from 'neutral' to 'greed', boosting investor confidence and driving prices up rapidly.
2. Surge in institutional capital and ETF demand
Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to absorb: Since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. at the beginning of 2024, the daily demand has far exceeded the supply of newly mined Bitcoin (for example, the ETF needs 4,500 BTC daily, while mining only produces 921), leading to a supply-demand imbalance. This structural demand shock continues to drive prices up.
Increase in institutional holdings: Recent data shows that 'whale addresses' holding 100-1000 BTC have been accumulating, with $1.7 billion worth of BTC accumulated in one month, indicating optimistic expectations from large funds for the future.
3. Macroeconomic and policy influences
Federal Reserve policy expectations: If the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut cycle or releases easing signals in 2025, it may exacerbate expectations of dollar depreciation, prompting funds to flow into Bitcoin as an anti-inflation tool.
Geopolitical risks: Escalation of conflicts in the Middle East or increased pressure from U.S. Treasury sell-offs may prompt investors to turn to Bitcoin and other safe-haven assets. Previous similar situations (such as the 2023 U.S. banking crisis) have shown a negative correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets.
4. Halving effects and long-term scarcity expectations
Upcoming halving event: After the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, the new supply will further decrease, leading the market to react in advance. Historical data shows that prices often rise significantly within 12-18 months post-halving, prompting investors to position themselves early.
Supply rigidity: The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins, with over 90% currently in circulation. The combination of scarcity and the halving mechanism reinforces the long-term bullish logic.
5. Short-term catalysts and changes in market liquidity
Surge in exchange withdrawals: Recently, there has been a significant net outflow of BTC from exchanges, indicating that investors prefer long-term holding rather than short-term selling, reducing market selling pressure and supporting price increases.
Short-seller liquidations and leverage effects: Rapid price increases may lead to high leverage short positions being forcibly liquidated, creating a 'short squeeze' scenario and further amplifying the gains.
Summary
The recent surge within 12 hours is the result of technical breakthroughs, institutional capital inflow, macroeconomic expectations, halving narratives, and market sentiment resonance. Although short-term fluctuations may be influenced by speculative factors, the long-term supply-demand imbalance (such as ETF demand vs. halving supply) remains the core driving force.#美联储3月利率决议 #Strategy增持比特币
