On March 20, the global financial market reached a critical juncture, as the Federal Reserve announced it would maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, a decision that aligns with the market's widespread expectations. However, the economic signals revealed behind this decision sparked deep interpretation from the market and strong volatility in the cryptocurrency sector. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve indicates that two interest rate cuts are expected in 2025, consistent with the predictions made last December. Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced it would gradually slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting April 1, a move seen by the market as a cautious response strategy to future economic conditions.
According to the latest news on March 20, data from the futures market reveals a striking trend: traders' expectations for the probability of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts at the June meeting have risen to 62.1%, compared to only 57% before the Federal Reserve made the decision to maintain interest rates. This indicates that the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction are undergoing subtle changes, and investors are closely monitoring every factor that may influence interest rate decisions.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a series of important statements at the subsequent press conference. He emphasized that the overall performance of the U.S. economy is currently strong, and the decision to slow the balance sheet reduction is more based on 'technical' considerations. Powell mentioned that although recent consumer spending has slowed and household uncertainty has increased, these changes are built on the foundation of previous rapid economic growth. At the same time, he pointed out that the labor market remains solid, providing strong support for the sustained development of the economy.
At the press conference, Powell expressed his views on the issue of 'tariffs' for the first time. When asked about the impact of tariffs on inflation forecasts, he honestly stated that it is difficult to accurately analyze the extent to which tariffs drive inflation, but he also noted that 'a significant portion of inflation factors may stem from tariffs.' In addition, Powell mentioned that the policies of the Trump administration would impact the economy, but he would be cautious in avoiding making clear judgments about the policies. Analysts believe that Powell's attitude may be an attempt to avoid excessive interpretation of external expectations regarding his policy by focusing on monthly data.
The series of actions by the Federal Reserve and Powell's statements have undoubtedly brought new variables to the global economy and financial markets. Investors are trying to interpret the future economic direction from these complex signals, and the cryptocurrency market is particularly sensitive to every decision made by the Federal Reserve. In the coming months, as more economic data is disclosed and policies gradually take effect, the global financial market may be on the verge of a new transformation.
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