The U.S. SEC will hold its first cryptocurrency roundtable on March 21, with the theme of 'Defining Securities Status.'

There are many types of cryptocurrencies, including mainstream digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as various tokens and coins based on blockchain technology. How to classify and regulate these different types of cryptocurrencies is an important topic for this meeting.

This meeting is led by Republican Commissioner Hester Peirce (known as 'Crypto Mom'), who has long advocated for a 'safe harbor' policy that allows projects to operate temporarily before compliance. If the meeting gives off similar signals, it will benefit small and medium-sized innovative projects; conversely, if it strengthens the identification of securities attributes, it may lead to more projects going overseas or turning towards 'decentralized' packaging.

If the meeting clarifies that certain tokens (like MEME coins and NFTs) do not belong to securities, it may trigger speculation in related assets in the short term; if the scope of securities is expanded, it is necessary to be wary of the regulatory risk exposure of overvalued projects (such as SOL and ADA).

Additionally, some say that the SEC will categorize tokens into 'securities' and 'non-securities,' which is actually a clever strategy to undermine the unified front of the cryptocurrency industry.

Because, for security tokens, the project parties need to register and disclose financial data, which will directly eliminate 90% of small and medium teams (compliance costs exceed $5 million), leaving only compliant tokens from giants like Coinbase and Circle to survive, forming an oligopolistic monopoly.

Non-security tokens, such as meme coins and some public chain tokens, are exempted, which seems beneficial but actually induces retail funds to flow into high-volatility assets, providing liquidity exit channels for institutions. For example, DOGE might surge by 50% as a result, but it is necessary to be wary of the SEC later holding them accountable for 'market manipulation.'

There are also speculations that the SEC may require exchanges to custody user assets in FDIC-insured banks, which would reduce platforms like Coinbase to 'channel merchants,' compressing profit margins by over 70%, while traditional banks collect custody fees.

Additionally, the introduction of standardized futures and options contracts will give traditional market makers (like Citadel) stronger price manipulation capabilities. Retail investors may face more complex 'long-short double kill' traps.

The upcoming cryptocurrency roundtable by the U.S. SEC may lead to some volatility in the cryptocurrency market in the short term. The uncertainty of regulatory policies has always been one of the significant risk factors in the cryptocurrency market, and the convening of the meeting may trigger a wait-and-see sentiment among investors, leading to a decrease in market trading activity.

In the long run, the U.S. SEC's strengthening of regulation over the cryptocurrency market will help promote the healthy development and standardization of the cryptocurrency market. Clear regulatory policies will provide market participants with clearer guidance, reduce market uncertainty and risk, and attract more institutional investors and traditional financial institutions into the cryptocurrency field.

For investors, we should recognize both the opportunities brought by regulation and fully understand the risks involved. In the investment decision-making process, one must remain rational and calm, fully understand the characteristics and rules of the cryptocurrency market, and master the necessary investment knowledge and skills.

The regulatory game is a 'war of attrition'; short-term emotions drive the market, but long-term compliance is the foundation of a bull market. Beware of the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' trap.

#SEC #圆桌会议 #市场监管 #证券