The latest report from cryptocurrency research firm K33 points out that the performance of Solana (SOL) futures launched by the CME on March 18 was sluggish, with a transaction volume of only $12.3 million and an open contract value of $7.8 million. In comparison to historical records, the CME's Bitcoin futures launched at the peak of the 2017 bull market had a first-day transaction volume of $102 million and open contracts worth $20.9 million; Ethereum futures, when launched in 2021, had a first-day transaction volume of $31 million and open contracts worth $20 million.
Solana futures went live on CME, with a trading volume of only $12.1 million on the first day.
K33 research director Vetle Lunde and analyst David Zimmerman point out that the lackluster start of Solana futures indicates a current market devoid of the funding frenzy and positive support seen in past bull markets.
Will the approval of the Solana spot ETF fail to spark a funding frenzy?
Despite multiple institutions in the U.S. applying for a Solana spot ETF, K33 analysis emphasizes that even if approved, Solana's impact may be far less than that of a Bitcoin ETF. The report points out that when the Bitcoin spot ETF launches in January 2024, it will attract over $10 billion in a single month, while Solana's market cap is smaller (currently around $80 billion), and institutions have a low willingness to allocate to competitive coins, making it difficult to replicate the same funding effect.
Analysts further explain that BTC and ETH futures were launched during periods of market euphoria (the 2017 BTC bull market, the 2021 DeFi and competitive coin craze), whereas the current reduction in interest in meme coins and the pressure from large token unlocks have weakened the attractiveness of SOL derivatives.
