It's fine if there are no interest rate cuts; first, let's see if U.S. Treasuries can hold up.

According to Jinshi Data, Fitch said in its latest global economic outlook that global economic growth will slow to 2.3% this year, below trend and 2.9% in 2024. Fitch lowered its forecast for US economic growth from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and lowered its growth forecast for 2026 from 1.7% to 1.5%. The tariff increase will lead to higher consumer prices in the United States, lower real wages and increase corporate costs. Policy uncertainty will affect corporate investment. The tariff shock is expected to increase US inflation by 1% in the near term, and the Federal Reserve may postpone further easing until the fourth quarter of 2025. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates only once this year and three more times in 2026.