$ETH ▶ Market Pulse
⚠️ Current Sentiment: Cautious (MVRV Neutral + Panic Index not breaking threshold, traders are in a wait-and-see mood)
⚠️ Trend Determination: Range-bound (EMA50 and EMA200 converging in the 1,850~1,950 range) ▌ Capital Flow: Net inflow to exchanges of 5.8 million | Stablecoin premium rate +0.08% (capital flowing back to exchanges)
▌ Technical Matrix
⚠️ Support Level: 1,852.3 (Fibonacci 38.2% + recent low) ⚠️ Resistance Level: 1,949.7 (previous high + upper Bollinger Band)
▶ RSI 52.3 (Neutral zone, no overbought/oversold) | MACD bottom divergence (histogram has risen for 3 consecutive bars)
⚠️ Pattern Recognition: Converging Triangle (Neckline $1,900) | Current Position: Lower range boundary
🔥 Opportunity Analysis
▌ Today's Opportunities:
Breakout Trade: Go long above 1,949.7 → Target 1,980 (requires a 4-hour volume breakout)
Range Low Buy: Go long on a pullback to 1,860 → Stop Loss 1,840 (support at the lower boundary of the range)
⚠️ Time Window: 20:00-22:00 (U.S. market opening volatility period)
▌ Tomorrow's Prediction:
Key Event: CPI data to be released at 20:30 (expected inflation decline)
Potential Direction: Upside breakout (60% probability) | If data is worse than expected, may dip to $1,820
▶ Risk Control System
✓ Stop Loss: $1,840 (automatic exit if the range is broken)
✓ Position Size: 1%~1.5% (BTC volatility +1.2%, not triggering a reduction)
✓ Confirmation Signal: Breakout needs a stable 2-hour closing price (filtering out false breakouts)
(Data Update: 19:45 | Volatility Monitoring: 42KB/S | Important Reminder: Volatility surged 20% on the eve of CPI data!)