1. Global macroeconomic context
- Fed monetary policy and central banks:
Currently, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may be continuing to adjust interest rates to balance between inflation and economic growth. If the Fed maintains the trend of lowering interest rates (as predicted from late 2024), this creates favorable conditions for risk assets such as crypto. Low interest rates typically encourage investors to shift funds from safe assets (bonds, gold) to higher potential profit assets such as Bitcoin and altcoin.
- Inflation and the value of the USD:
Global inflation remains an important factor. If inflation remains high or rises again, Bitcoin – often seen as 'digital gold' – could attract more interest as an inflation hedge. However, if the USD strengthens due to tariff policies or geopolitical instability (e.g., U.S.-China tensions), crypto prices may face downward pressure in the short term.
- Global economic growth:
According to OECD forecasts (global GDP growth around 3.3% in 2025), the global economy is maintaining stable growth momentum but not too strong. This could create a neutral environment for crypto, where funds are not fully pouring into risk assets but also not completely withdrawing.
2. Legal and regulatory policies
- Trump 2.0 administration:
With Donald Trump taking office in January 2025, the crypto market anticipates more friendly policies, as he promised during his campaign. The potential resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler could pave the way for clearer and less restrictive regulations, encouraging participation from large financial institutions. This is particularly important as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF funds have been approved and may expand to other altcoins like Solana.
- Global regulations:
Outside the U.S., countries like South Korea are considering lifting the ban on crypto ETFs, while Russia is starting to use Bitcoin for international payments. These moves indicate an increasing acceptance of crypto in the global financial system, creating long-term growth momentum.
3. Market sentiment and volatility
- Investor sentiment:
The current crypto market may be in a consolidation phase after Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark at the end of 2024. However, sentiment remains susceptible to short-term factors such as political news (Trump's tariffs) or economic data (NFP report). Some analysts on X suggest that fear (FUD) is causing investors to overlook the long-term upward trend.
- Price volatility:
Bitcoin has fluctuated between $92,000 and $106,000 since November 2024 (according to some sources), with increased selling pressure if it loses critical support levels like $80,250. However, tight Bitcoin supply (due to the 2024 halving) and rising institutional demand are supporting the long-term upward trend.
4. Specific factors of the crypto market
- Bitcoin Halving 2024:
The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 is still impacting supply. Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to surge in the 12-18 months following halving, meaning 2025 could be the peak year of the current cycle. Some optimistic predictions (such as from VanEck) suggest Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.
- The development of Altcoins and Stablecoins:
Altcoins like Solana, BNB, and XRP are showing strength, with some reaching new highs in this cycle. Stablecoins (like USDC) continue to grow in trading volume, with market capitalization potentially exceeding $400 billion by 2025, reflecting real demand in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi).
- Memecoins and DeFi:
Memecoins remain a highlight, attracting speculative funds thanks to a strong community. Meanwhile, DeFi and projects like DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) are expanding real-world applications, reinforcing confidence in the long-term potential of crypto.
5. Risks and challenges
- Trade wars:
If U.S.-China trade tensions escalate (for example, Trump's 10% tariffs on China), the crypto market may experience negative impacts in the short term due to global economic instability.
- Price adjustments:
If Bitcoin rises too hot at the end of 2024 or early 2025, a major correction could occur, temporarily dragging the entire market down. Some experts warn of the possibility of a bear market in 2025 if proper consolidation does not take place.
### Conclusion
The current crypto market (03/2025) is strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and trade policies, yet still supported by intrinsic drivers like halving, institutional participation, and legal acceptance. In the short term, volatility may continue due to market sentiment and political news. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, with Bitcoin likely to lead the market to new highs by the end of 2025, driving the growth of altcoins and real blockchain applications. Investors need to closely monitor economic indicators (GDP, CPI, interest rates) and regulatory news to adjust strategies accordingly.
