👀 Market Focus Update 3/18

【Core Schedule】

▶ 3/19 BOJ Interest Rate Decision (Expected to remain at 0.5%)

▶ 3/20 Fed Interest Rate Decision (98% probability to maintain interest rates)

【Policy Game】

1. Central Bank Coordination: Strengthened expectations for synchronized stabilization by Japan and the US, Trump's trade policy first included in the pricing system.

2. Fed Path: Neutral stance continues, focus on dot plot interest rate guidance and 'dual tightening' risk scenario analysis.

【BTC Strategy Analysis】

◼ Technical Pattern: Sideways consolidation at the middle track of 83000 daily line, breakout direction depends on policy resonance

◼ Key Game: Unexpected rate hike by BOJ/Fed hawkish comments may trigger selling pressure

◼ Support and Resistance: BTC support at 80,000-82,000 / resistance at 85,300; ETH range 1,875-1,950

【Selected News】

1. Regulatory Trends: SEC crypto working group will hold a roundtable on the 21st, Hashdex's application for ETF inclusion of SOL/XRP/ADA has been approved.

2. Institutional Actions: WLFI strategic reserve adds BTC/ETH and 6 other cryptocurrencies, US BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $274 million yesterday.

3. Personnel Changes: Trump appoints Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed, will sign Executive Order Z on the same day.

4. Ecosystem Progress: a16z releases ElizaOS v2 beta, Apt launches LFM ecosystem support plan.