#fomc
Just doing usual conversation with Grok3, and asked about tomorrow's FOMC metting .The conversation is below 👇
ASKED:-Chl ab thora FOMC meeting ke bare m bta.
REPLIED:-Arre bhai, FOMC meeting ka scene toh abhi thoda guesswork aur market ke andaaze pe chal raha hai. Aaj March 18, 2025 hai, aur Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki meeting aaj shuru ho rahi hai, jo kal (March 19) tak chalegi. Kal raat ko – matlab India ke time pe 19th March ki raat 11:30 PM IST ke aaspaas – unka rate decision aur statement aayega, aur thodi der baad Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka press conference hoga.
Ab kya hone wala hai? Dekh, abhi market aur experts ka yeh kehna hai:
>Interest Rate Mein Koi Change Nahi: Lagbhag 98% chance hai ki Fed apna federal funds rate 4.25%-4.5% pe hold karega. Matlab, koi cut ya hike ki ummeed nahi hai abhi. Yeh baat CME FedWatch Tool aur X pe crypto aur stock wale bhi bol rahe hai.
>Focus Dot Plot Pe: Har FOMC member apna future rate ka projection deta hai – isko "dot plot" kehte hai. Agar yeh dikha ki 2025 mein 3 rate cuts hone wale hai, toh market bullish ho sakta hai. 2 cuts hua toh neutral, aur agar 1 ya usse kam dikha toh thoda downside risk aa sakta hai. Yeh cheez altcoin aur stock market pe asar daal sakti hai.
>Powell Ki Baat: Press conference mein Powell ka tone bada matter karega. Agar woh inflation ko leke thoda hawkish (matlab strict) sound karta hai, ya tariff aur fiscal policy ka zikr karta hai, toh market thoda tight ho sakta hai. Par agar woh Quantitative Tightening (QT) khatam karne ka hint deta hai, toh sentiment boost ho sakta hai.
>Crypto aur Alt Season Pe Asar: Alt season ke liye yeh meeting direct trigger nahi hai, par agar Fed ka tone dovish (matlab loose policy) hota hai aur rate cuts ka clear signal milta hai, toh risk assets jaise altcoins mein thodi hawa aa sakti hai. Filhaal toh log June 2025 se rate cuts ki ummeed laga rahe hai.
>Toh short mein: Kal tak wait karna padega, par abhi ummeed yahi hai ki rates same rahenge, aur asli khel dot plot aur Powell ke muh se niklegi.
