According to the latest market analysis on March 18, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) today shows a range-bound fluctuation pattern under the tug-of-war of bulls and bears, with a detailed analysis as follows:
1. Short-term Technical Analysis
Range Pressure and Support: The current price is facing range top pressure in the $1920-1950 range, and if it breaks through, it may challenge the psychological level of $2000; key support is concentrated in the $1800-1850 range (with $1830 as a Fibonacci retracement level). If it falls below $1800, it could test the lower Bollinger Band support at $1741.
Indicator Signals: MACD daily line shows a low-level golden cross but lacks momentum, while the Bollinger Bands contraction indicates a sideways trend; the 12-hour KDJ and MACD golden cross points upwards, suggesting short-term rebound momentum.
2. Divergence in Market Opinions
Bearish Strategy: Some analysts believe that after encountering resistance at the top of the range, bearish momentum for ETH has strengthened, suggesting to set up short positions in the $1920-1950 range, targeting $1850-1800.
Bullish Viewpoint: If it breaks through $2000 and holds, it may trigger a wedge breakout, targeting $2450; whale accounts have continuously increased their holdings by 420,000 ETH (valued at $811 million), indicating long-term funds are positioning at lower levels.
Bilateral Operation: Aggressive strategies can go long around $1830 (stop-loss at $1820) while going short above $2000 (stop-loss at $2020).
3. Key Driving Factors
Technical Upgrade: After the Cancun upgrade, Layer 2 network performance improves. If the Gas burn rate accelerates, it may drive expectations of ETH deflation.
Macroeconomic Policy: Policy uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on March 19, along with the outflow of spot ETF funds (a net outflow of $35.3 million in a single day), exacerbates market volatility.
Ecological Competition: The rise of Layer 1 public chains like Solana is diverting funds, necessitating attention to whether the growth of Ethereum's ecological applications can offset competitive pressure.
4. Risk Warning
Short-term Volatility Risk: Intraday volatility may expand, and caution is advised regarding CPI data, geopolitical news, and other stimuli that could trigger gap openings.
Long-term Outlook Divergence: Some institutions predict that ETH may rebound to $4000 by 2025, but others believe that if it falls below $1800, it could drop to the $1000-700 range.
Summary
Today, ETH may continue to fluctuate in the $1800-2000 range. Investors are advised to combine real-time market data, strictly set stop-losses (e.g., 50-80 points), and prioritize short-term swing trades. If it breaks through the range, the trend direction needs to be reassessed.