Dog trader's control revealed! TON's massive pump hides a deadly trap, the bull-bear game intensifies.
The market shows signs of full control by dog traders, TON surged to $3.457 today before retreating to $3.42, narrowing the intraday increase to 3.57%. However, the trading volume was only $393 million, a 45% decrease from yesterday.
Technical analysis hides secrets: MA30 ($3.38) and MA60 ($3.35) golden cross is a false signal, MACD's underwater golden cross narrows to $0.005, KDJ's three lines stick in the 60 neutral zone playing dead, the upper Bollinger Band is suppressed at $3.5, the volume-less rise exposes the dog trader's lure trap.
Volume-price divergence: Dog traders are self-satisfied, retail investors take the bait.
Key data slaps dog traders in the face:
The price increase of 3.57% but trading volume plummeted by 45%, volume-price divergence is solid evidence #1; Williams indicator in the neutral zone, no signs of main funds entering; four-hour RSI shows a top divergence, a dense wall of sell orders appears around $3.45 (about 120,000 TON).
This kind of “self-pumping and self-singing” market is clearly a left-hand to right-hand maneuver by dog traders, attracting retail investors to follow suit and then flipping to liquidate them.
News front: Telegram's negative surprise, Korean traders retreat.
Ecosystem negativity: Telegram's founder Durov temporarily leaves the French team, the originally planned TON deep integration project for Q1 is delayed, community confidence is shaken; whale activity: Upbit exchange's TON holdings drop by 18%, Korean speculators' retreat leads to increased selling pressure during Asian hours; contract squeeze: TON contract holdings reach $120 million, funding rate at -0.25%, short positions heavily ambushed above $3.5.
Old-school hardcore strategy (news changes in real-time, not authoritative):
Spot traders buy at $3.15 (20-day EMA support) for bottom fishing, stop-loss below $3.0; contract traders short at $3.48-$3.5, stop-loss strictly at $3.55 (previous high pressure), target directly at $3.0 liquidation point on-chain. The public chain sector SOL, APT drops by 3%, TON/BTC exchange rate falls below 0.000041 (new weekly low), funds flee to BTC, BNB for safety.
Life and death line:
Breaking $3.15 triggers long liquidation, watch the psychological defense line at $3.0; stabilizing above $3.5 requires volume to exceed daily trading volume of $500 million, otherwise a false breakout lures longs; dog trader control signal: Upbit position rebounds + Williams indicator enters overbought zone.
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