📈 In the past round of rises: from trend to bubble.

Since the market rebound began in January 2023, BTC reached a historical high in March - April 2024. This round of the market has completed a full upward cycle.

Early (2023 Q1 - Q3): Most assets are still in the value restoration phase, with BTC, ETH, and some quality track assets showing significant increases.

Medium term (2023 Q4 - 2024 Q1): Institutional funds drive the BTC ETF approval, and the market enters the FOMO stage, with liquidity driving prices to accelerate upward.

In the later period (2024 Q2): Market sentiment is extremely optimistic, valuations are severely overdrawn, altcoin capital speculation intensifies, and some overvalued assets retreat.

The main upward wave of this round is mainly concentrated in BTC, while ETH and altcoins have lagged behind. Especially after BTC broke new highs, the market still held expectations for 'altcoin season', but the facts prove that market liquidity is insufficient to support large-scale rotation.

📉 Current market: Emotion is fading, risks are increasing.

The current market has entered a recession period from the frenzy period, especially:

BTC ETF funds continue to flow out, institutional funds cashing out profits, and the market loses support.

ETH and altcoins' valuations have declined, market faith has weakened, and sector rotation has failed.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains unclear, with fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts, putting pressure on market liquidity.

The logic of the market's rise is being weakened. BTC may still oscillate at high levels, but for altcoins, the collapse of market confidence is more deadly than price declines. The hype topics from the past year have been overdrawn, making it difficult to reshape an upward trend in the short term.

📌 Possible three trends in the future.

1️⃣ The bull market correction has ended, and the market continues to rise (very low probability 🚫).

Current market sentiment has peaked. Unless there is new incremental capital entering (such as large-scale easing by central banks, a surge in BTC demand, etc.), it is difficult for a new bull market to start immediately.

The approval of ETH ETF may be a potential catalyst, but the current funding environment does not support large-scale upward movements.

2️⃣ Market shocks to $100,000, forming a double top (low probability ⚠️).

In the short term, BTC may try to push new highs, but if there is not enough capital support, it may form a false breakout, inducing long positions before continuing to decline.

The core logic of the tail-end market is 'emotional harvesting'. Since the market has already completed most of the harvesting, the probability of giving everyone a perfect opportunity to escape the peak is extremely low.

3️⃣ The bear market begins, and the market enters a long correction (highest probability ✅).

The current market is very similar to the stages after the bull peaks in 2018 and 2021. Most institutional funds have cashed out, and the market only has scattered retail funds left, making it difficult to form new driving forces.

After the emotion fades, the market will gradually return to value logic. Highly inflated assets will continue to correct, undervalued assets may gradually stabilize, but there is unlikely to be a big market in the short term.

🔍 Trading strategy: Focus on defense, patiently wait.

✅ Control risks, keep enough cash:

The current market is not suitable for heavy entry; one should maintain a high cash position and patiently wait for better buying points.

Avoid frequent trading during the correction process and trying to catch the bottom; patiently wait for the market to stabilize.

✅ Focus on BTC, reduce altcoin holdings:

BTC is the most deterministic asset in the market. If the market declines further, BTC's resilience is far superior to that of ETH and altcoins.

For overvalued altcoins, one should decisively cut losses and reduce positions to avoid being stuck for a long time.

✅ Wait for opportunities after a larger correction:

If BTC breaks below $75,000, market sentiment may further deteriorate, but this might provide a better buying opportunity.

After the halving in 2025, the market may welcome new cyclical opportunities. The current stage is more suitable for patiently waiting rather than blindly chasing up.

📢 Conclusion: The turning point of market sentiment has appeared; respond cautiously.

The current market has entered the correction period after the tail-end market. Short-term fluctuations may create illusions, but the overall trend has weakened. Instead of frequent operations at high levels, it is better to keep enough cash and wait for true value opportunities in the market.

The essence of trading is to earn certain money. In a highly risky market, reducing operations and maintaining patience is the optimal choice. 🚀