I. Technical Analysis:
Patterns and Trends
End of Wedge Adjustment: ETH is currently in a narrow oscillation range of $1890-1905, with a daily wedge convergence structure; technical indicators show a gradual balance of bullish and bearish forces, but in the short term, it is under pressure from the 4-hour EMA30 ($1884), lacking rebound momentum.
Key Support and Resistance:
Lower Support: $1850-1825 (overlap of the March 14 low and Fibonacci 0.886 retracement level); if broken, it may accelerate the drop to $1778-1755.
Upper Resistance: $1960-1997 (March 13 high and upper wedge pressure); a breakout needs to be accompanied by an hourly trading volume > $500 million to confirm validity.
Divergence in Indicator Signals
MACD and RSI: The 4-hour MACD histogram continues to shrink, with DIF and DEA sticking below the zero axis, indicating unclear short-term direction; RSI (56) is in a neutral zone, with neither side gaining an advantage.
Moving Average System: The price continues to operate below the daily 20-day moving average ($1920); if it cannot break through, the bearish dominance will be maintained.
II. Market Sentiment: Policy and Capital Game
Impact of Macro Variables
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (March 20): If hawkish signals are released (such as delaying interest rate cuts), ETH might come under pressure alongside risk assets; if dovish statements are made, it may drive funds back into the crypto market.
Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC's delay in approving Ethereum ETFs continues to suppress market expectations; watch for unusual positions from institutions like BlackRock.
On-chain and Derivative Data
Changes in Whale Positions: On-chain data shows significant buy orders accumulating in the $1800-1850 range, but the support strength has weakened compared to early March.
Contract Risk: The overall network leverage has risen to 1.1 times, making drastic price fluctuations likely to trigger both long and short liquidations; caution is advised regarding short squeezes caused by liquidations above $1900.
III. Cai Ge's Operational Strategy:
Radical Strategy
Left Side Bargain: If the price retraces to around $1830 (support from the head and shoulders bottom pattern), a small long position can be tried with a stop loss at $1820, targeting $1960-1997.
Breakout Buy: If the price breaks above $1960 with significant volume and closes hourly above, a long position can be initiated, targeting $2067 (previous high resistance), with a stop loss set at $1930.
Stable Strategy
Right Side Confirmation: Wait for the price to break above the wedge upper edge ($1960) and confirm with a retrace before entering a long position, with a stop loss at $1920 and targeting $2100-2150.
Breakout Defense: If it breaks below $1825, a rebound at $1850 can be tried for a short position, targeting $1778, with a stop loss at $1870.
#ETH走势分析 #BNBChainMeme热潮 #美国加佂关税
Need help? Leave a comment to get support from a top team.
I am Cai Ge, supported by a top team, serving only ambitious madmen (serious inquiries only).
