Bitcoin Rebound Analysis
1. Factors Driving the Rebound
Macro Easing: The Federal Reserve is slowing down interest rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields are retreating, and pressure on risk assets has temporarily lessened.
On-Chain Support: Long-term holders account for 68% (a historical high), and net outflows of BTC from exchanges have alleviated selling pressure.
Industry Catalyst: Approval of a spot ETF could attract tens of billions in funding, and a technical breakout above the 200-day moving average (26,800 USD).
2. Risks and Challenges
Macro Uncertainty: Recurring inflation or geopolitical conflicts may reverse easing expectations.
Regulatory Risks: Outcomes of SEC lawsuits and the EU's MiCA regulations could impact market sentiment.
On-Chain Alerts: MVRV ratio below 1, a rebound above 30,000 USD may trigger profit-taking sell-offs.
3. Future Scenarios
Reversal (40%): ETF approval + Federal Reserve rate cuts, targeting 35,000 to 42,000 USD.
Consolidation (50%): Trading within the range of 25,000 to 32,000 USD, waiting for new catalysts.
Bottoming Out (10%): A black swan event may trigger a drop below 24,000 USD.
4. Strategic Recommendations
Positioning: BTC allocation ≤ 10%, avoid excessive exposure.
Focus: December Federal Reserve meeting, January ETF approval results.
Hedging: Set stop-loss orders (e.g., 10% drawdown), use options to hedge downside risk.
Conclusion: High probability of short-term consolidation; if the ETF is approved and the halving cycle begins, it may initiate a new upward trend. Maintain flexible positioning and closely monitor macro and regulatory signals.
