Arizona's passage of the 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act' marks a significant shift in the attitude of local governments in the United States towards cryptocurrency, which can be analyzed from multiple perspectives:
### **1. Demonstration Effect and State Legislative Wave**
- **Precedent Value**: As the first state to allow public funds to invest in Bitcoin, Arizona may trigger a domino effect. Currently, about 20 states in the U.S. are advancing similar bills, and if successfully implemented, other states (such as Texas and Ohio) may accelerate their legislative processes, potentially driving over $23 billion in Bitcoin demand.
- **Policy Differentiation**: Conservative states (like Utah) may follow suit, while states concerned about volatility (like Montana) may remain cautious, creating a regional divide between 'crypto-friendly' and 'traditional' areas.
### **2. Structural Impact on the Crypto Market**
- **Accelerated Institutionalization**: The entry of state pension funds will enhance the recognition of Bitcoin as a 'quasi-sovereign asset', promoting its transition from a speculative tool to a reserve asset.
- **Liquidity Boost**: Arizona alone could bring in $2 billion of potential buying interest (accounting for 10% of its pension fund); if multiple states follow, it could significantly improve the supply-demand structure of Bitcoin.
### **3. Risks and Controversies**
- **Volatility Challenges**: Short-term volatility of Bitcoin may threaten the safety of public funds, necessitating strict risk control (e.g., Arizona setting a 10% investment cap).
- **Regulatory Game**: There is currently no unified legislation at the federal level, and if state policies conflict with future federal regulations, it may lead to compliance risks.
**Conclusion**: Arizona's bill is a key step towards integrating cryptocurrency into mainstream finance; while it may not disrupt the traditional system in the short term, it provides a new paradigm for state-level asset diversification. Its success or failure will depend on the effectiveness of risk management and the subsequent coordination of state/federal policies, with an expectation that 5-10 more states will follow suit in the next 2-3 years, further promoting the 'institutionalization' of Bitcoin.
