Research Findings:
On March 15, 2025, Chainlink unlocked 19 million LINK (approximately $262 million) from non-circulating supply addresses, of which 14.875 million (approximately $205 million) were transferred to a certain exchange, and 4.125 million (approximately $57.04 million) were transferred to the multi-signature address '0xD50...8Af'.
Core Judgment:
Tokens transferred to a certain exchange may be sold to raise funds, which may create downward pressure on LINK prices in the short term; parts transferred to a multi-signature address may be used for network incentives or secure holding, which is beneficial for ecological development in the long term.
Market Impact:
Short-term prices may come under pressure, but historical data shows that unlocks are often accompanied by price increases, and the use of funds will determine long-term trends.
This continues Chainlink's unlocking pattern every three months, sparking widespread market attention on token flow and potential impacts.
Analysis and Speculation
1. Possible Intent of Fund Flow
Transferred to a certain exchange (14.875 million LINK)
As a major trading platform, receiving such a large number of tokens usually indicates two possibilities:
Fundraising through sale: Chainlink may plan to sell a portion of tokens to support operations, development, or partner programs. Historical data shows that since August 2022, Chainlink has transferred approximately 10.77 million $LINK to a certain exchange at an average price of about $9.89, totaling over $1 billion.
Providing Liquidity: Tokens may also be used to increase market liquidity or support projects related to Binance, but selling remains the more likely explanation.
Transferred to a multi-signature address (4.125 million LINK)
The multi-signature address '0xD50...8Af' is controlled by multiple keys, typically used for secure storage or specific purpose allocations:
Network Incentives: These tokens may be used to reward node operators, enhancing the decentralization and stability of the network.
Future Planning: May also serve as reserves for subsequent ecosystem expansion or strategic deployments with partners.
2. Market Impact Assessment
Short-term Impact
14.875 million pieces $LINK (approximately 2.4% of the current circulating supply, based on a circulation of 608.1 million pieces) transferred to a certain exchange. If sold quickly, it may increase market supply. The current $LINK price is approximately $13.91 (as of March 14, 2025), with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.04 billion. This transfer amount accounts for about 20% of the trading volume. This may trigger selling pressure and lead to a price drop in the short term.
Historical Trends
Based on past data (such as the unlocking of 18.75 million LINK in September 2024), five out of seven unlocks saw price increases within 30 days. This indicates that the market may view unlocks as a positive signal for project development rather than mere selling pressure.
Long-term Impact
If the proceeds from the sale are used to support Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) or collaborations with platforms like Coinbase (such as the tokenized assets ecosystem), it will enhance its market position, attract more institutional users, and increase demand for $link.
3. Ecosystem Significance
Chainlink's token unlocking plan aims to achieve network self-sustainability, releasing approximately 7% of the total supply (1 billion pieces) each year. After this unlocking, approximately 39.15 million LINK (worth about $5.4 billion) remains in non-circulating supply. Funds may be used for:
Node Rewards: Supporting the decentralized operation of the oracle network.
Project Development: Such as CCIP or integration with other blockchains, further solidifying Chainlink's core position in the Web3 ecosystem.
Conclusion and Outlook
This unlocking event indicates that Chainlink has taken strategic measures to balance short-term market pressure with long-term development needs. Tokens transferred to Binance may pose a challenge to prices in the short term, but if funds are used for ecological construction, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. Historical patterns show that the market's reaction to unlocks may shift from initial panic to a recovery of confidence in the project.
Recommendations:
Investors: Closely monitor Chainlink's official follow-up announcements (such as the use of funds) and LINK's performance at the $13.5 support level.
Ecosystem Participants: Expecting enhanced network incentives and potential cross-chain collaboration opportunities.
