According to the latest market data on March 15, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is showing a volatile recovery trend today, with the following analysis:
Price and technical indicators
Current price: $1,891 (data as of March 14), with a slight rebound of 1% during the day, but unable to hold above the key psychological level of $2,000.
Technical signals:
Short term: The MACD and KDJ on the four-hour chart are flattening, and the RSI is close to the oversold area (32.95), indicating a potential technical rebound. The MA5/MA10 on the daily chart continues to suppress, but the reduced trading volume (only 1,149,893 shares today) suggests limited rebound momentum.
Key resistance: $2,000-$2,040 (MA10 daily moving average resistance), if broken, it may rise to $2,150.
Support level: $1,759 (recent low), if broken, it may drop to $1,600.
Market dynamics and capital flow
Capital situation: Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH.AM) rose 4.66% in a single day, indicating that institutional funds are buying on dips.
Sentiment indicator: The retail fear and greed index is very low (15), but the number of active addresses on-chain has risen to 293,000 (up from 270,000 at the beginning of the year), indicating that the confidence of long-term holders has not completely dissipated.
Operational suggestions
Short-term strategy:
Short position on rebound: Light short positions in the range of $2,000-$2,040, with a stop loss at $2,080 and a target of $1,850.
Buy on dips: If it falls to the range of $1,750-$1,780, gradually build long positions.
Risk warning:
Policy risk: There is still uncertainty regarding the SEC's progress on the approval of cryptocurrency spot ETFs.
Leverage risk: The ETH contract leverage remains high at 120 times, so be cautious of liquidation.
Contradictions and uncertainties
Data discrepancies: Some exchanges show the current price of ETH at $1,891, but the delayed on-chain data may affect real-time judgment.
Macroeconomic disturbances: The Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting is approaching, and the game between interest rate cut expectations and Trump's tariff policy may exacerbate volatility.
In summary, ETH is likely to maintain a range of $1,750-$2,050 today, suggesting a focus on short positions while monitoring the effectiveness of the $1,750 support. Strict stop-loss measures are required to avoid emotional trading.
