#BTC
1. Technical Aspects: Short-term Resistance and Trading Strategy
1. *Current Price Structure and Resistance Levels**
- **4-Hour Mid-Band Resistance ($84,456)**: If the price effectively breaks this level (with increased volume), short-term momentum may be released, targeting the lower channel baseline resistance at $89,460. However, it is important to note that the overall trading volume in the current market is weak, and a breakout may face a need for a pullback confirmation.
- **Key Support Level ($82,800)**: If the price falls below $82,800 and cannot quickly recover, it may further dip into the $80,000-$78,500 range (with weekly EMA30 support).
2. **Trading Strategy Optimization Suggestions**
- **Position Management**: In a volatile market, it is advisable to reduce the size of individual positions (no more than 5% of total capital) to avoid passive holdings from short-term fluctuations.
- **Stop-Loss Settings**: The stop-loss for long positions can be set at $81,500 (below the recent low), and after breaking $84,456, move the stop-loss to the breakeven line to lock in profits.
Leverage Risk*: High leverage (over 10 times) is easily liquidated in a volatile market; it is advisable to keep it below 3-5 times.
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2. Macroeconomic Factors: The Trump Tariff War and Its Correlation with the Crypto Space**
1. **Real Objectives and Impacts of the Tariff War**
- **US Debt Issues**: The scale of US national debt has reached $35 trillion, and tariff revenue (about $88 billion in 2023) is negligible for debt repayment. The core aim of tariffs is to reshape the supply chain (like bringing manufacturing back) and political votes, rather than direct debt repayment.
- **China's Response Capability**: China's export structure has diversified (with increasing shares from ASEAN and the Middle East), but there is still reliance on high-tech products from the US (chips, AI hardware). The tariff war may suppress profits in some industries, indirectly affecting market confidence.
2. Transmission Path to the Cryptocurrency Market
- Rising Living Costs in Europe: If tariffs drive up inflation, the European Central Bank may maintain high interest rates, leading to capital outflows from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). However, the main capital in the crypto space comes from the US (ETFs), the Middle East (sovereign funds), and Asia (Grayscale Trust arbitrage), with Europe having a limited share (about 15%), potentially leading to less impact than expected.
Asian Deposit Restrictions: Policies in places like China and Japan indeed suppress retail entry.
Bitcoin's Long-Term Logic and Short-Term Constraints
1. *Long-Term Value Support*
*Halving Effect**: After the fourth halving, miner selling pressure decreases, but it may take 6-12 months for this to reflect in prices.
*Institutionalization Process*: The US Bitcoin ETF manages over $60 billion in assets, with giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continuously increasing their holdings, providing long-term buying support.
*Geopolitical Hedging Demand*: The Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle East situation may drive Bitcoin's narrative as 'digital gold'.
2. **Short-Term Suppressing Factors**
- **Tightening USD Liquidity**: The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction (QT) continues, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.5%, suppressing risk appetite.
- **Regulatory Uncertainty**: The SEC's delay regarding Ethereum ETFs and the unresolved Binance lawsuit lead to a wait-and-see approach from capital.
- **Diverging Market Sentiment**: The Fear and Greed Index (recently at 40-50) shows neutral sentiment, lacking the momentum for a breakout.
1. Swing Trading Strategy
*Range Trading*: Buy low and sell high within the $78,500-$84,500 range; follow the trend after a breakout.
2. Bottom Line of Capital Management
Never Fully Invested: Always retain at least 30% cash to cope with extreme volatility (such as black swan events causing flash crashes).
Emotional Isolation: Avoid frequently adjusting strategies due to short-term unrealized losses, and execute trading discipline as planned.
Summary: Rationally view the $150,000 narrative.
Short-term Reality: Due to tightening liquidity and regulatory pressure, Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a unilateral surge, and the volatile market may continue until the end of the third quarter.
Long-term Potential: If the Federal Reserve shifts to rate cuts and geopolitical risks escalate, $150,000 is not a fantasy, but it requires time for verification.
Core Suggestion: Reduce excessive interpretation of a single factor (like tariffs), focus on technical signals and capital flows, and manage risks with position sizes and tools rather than relying on a 'pattern' to hold firm.
Final Conclusion: The market always moves forward in uncertainty. Instead of complaining about 'force majeure', it is better to improve one's own trading system—this is the only weapon to navigate through bull and bear markets.