Currently, the most likely altcoin ETF to be approved is the Litecoin (LTC) ETF, which has an approval probability predicted by Bloomberg analysts to be 90%, and has entered the later stage of regulatory review:
1. Litecoin (LTC) ETF: Significant Competitive Advantage
Highest Approval Probability: Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart both believe that the approval probability for the Litecoin ETF is 90%, mainly because it is classified as a 'commodity' by the U.S. SEC (similar to Bitcoin), and the application process has advanced to a critical stage.
2. Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF: Potential Stock Among Meme Coins Approval Probability 75%: Although it is a meme coin, the DOGE ETF has gained significant attention due to its community culture attributes and institutional application enthusiasm (such as applications from Grayscale and NYSE Arca). Analysts believe its approval likelihood is only second to Litecoin.
3. Solana (SOL) ETF: Representative of Technology Tokens Approval Probability 70%: Solana is favored by institutions due to its high-performance blockchain technology, with companies like Grayscale and VanEck having submitted applications. However, its lack of a regulated futures market may delay the approval process.
4. XRP ETF: Legal Disputes Affect Progress
Approval probability 65%# Although institutions like WisdomTree have submitted applications, the legal disputes between XRP and the SEC (whether it is considered a security) have not been fully resolved, resulting in a lower approval probability.