ETH sideways at the $1900 death line! The whale has hidden a nuclear-level harvesting wall with a sell wall of 4300 coins (3.14 live simulation)
1. The golden cross with reduced volume is a fatal trap for the whales
ETH stuck at $1900 is not a coincidence, MA5 ($1897) and MA10 ($1890) seem to have a golden cross, but the trading volume shrank to 7491 coins (80% of the 5-day average volume of 9271 coins)
The weekly resistance at $1915 is holding firm, with four false breakouts in the past two months at this level, accumulating over $1.2 billion in liquidations
The lower level at $1880 is the chip graveyard from March 12, on-chain data shows that there are 236,000 ETH stacked in the turnover cost area here, and once it breaks this level, it could trigger a panic sell-off, heading straight to the abyss at $1850
This morning, after a spike to $1890, it was quickly pulled back; this kind of price action is designed to kill high-leverage long positions
2. The giant whale wash trading + 4300 sell wall
The whale buried a 4300 sell wall at $1905, which is more brutal than before the crash on February 28 when a sell order of 2800 coins triggered an $800 million liquidation; this time, the sell order volume increased by 53%
On-chain monitoring detected whales wash trading between $1895-$1900, combined with the perpetual funding rate of the three major exchanges skyrocketing to 0.18% (annualized 65%), the liquidation price concentration area is between $1890-$1915
Even more concerning, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to 0.061 (a three-year low), indicating that funds are withdrawing from the Ethereum ecosystem
3. Tonight’s nuclear bomb: Grayscale Trust premium rate determines life and death
At 20:30, the Grayscale ETH Trust premium rate becomes the ultimate variable, combined with on-chain data showing an outflow of $1.8 billion in ETH for the week of March 10; the old-school analysis:
1. Premium rate collapse: If it drops to -10%, referring to the February 28 script, the $1850 iron bottom may not hold
2. Institutional bottom-fishing signal: Even if the premium rate rebounds, the whales may take the opportunity to dump, after all, the norm for ETH in recent months has been to dump on good news
3. Double explosion of bulls and bears: If the premium rate stays between -5% to -8%, it will create volatility to harvest both long and short contracts; this kind of play had a liquidation of $646 million in 24 hours last week
4. Old-school advice (not authoritative)
Spot traders: Place orders below $1850 to catch spikes (3% intervals in batches), if it breaks $1820, shut down immediately
Contract traders: If it breaks $1915, chase longs but must carry a 1.2% stop loss; if it breaks $1880, open shorts with leverage ≤ 3x
PiaoXiu party: Uninstall the contract APP! In this market, the whales' control is more ruthless than Bitcoin, holding firm only sends bullets to the main force
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