Leek Research Diary 3-14

Current Price: $82,080

1. The price has fallen approximately 25% from the historical high of $109,356 on January 20, with increased volatility, indicating the market is in a correction phase.

2. Technical analysis support and resistance levels: Support: $80,000, if broken may drop to $70,000. Resistance: $90,000, if broken may test $95,000. Moving average trend: Short-term moving average has fallen below the mid-term moving average, and the long-term moving average is turning down, indicating short-term bearish dominance and a weakening mid-term trend. Market signals: BTC has dropped alongside US stocks, filling the CME futures gap, with short-term technical signals indicating “strong sell” (daily), “sell” (weekly), but “buy” (monthly), suggesting significant short-term downward pressure, with a potential rebound within a month.

3. Macroeconomic environment Dollar Index: 103.98, relatively strong; historically, a strong dollar tends to suppress BTC prices. Inflation Rate: The US February CPI is 2.8%, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may weaken BTC's appeal as an inflation hedge. Interest Rates: Federal funds rate is 4.25%-4.50%, stable in the short term. Market sentiment: X platform users expect BTC to range between $78,000 and $92,000 in the short term, with potential volatility increases after the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18.

4. Halving effect and long-term trend BTC will undergo its fourth halving in April 2024, historically showing explosive price growth 12-18 months post-halving (from April 2025 to October 2026). Currently, it is in a positive brewing period, but the short-term adjustment is not yet over.

5. Price prediction Comprehensive analysis suggests BTC's price trend from March 14 to April 14, 2025, may be as follows: Bullish scenario: If US stocks stabilize or the Federal Reserve signals easing on March 18, the price may rebound to $90,000. Bearish scenario: If US stocks continue to decline, the dollar strengthens, or $80,000 is lost, the price may fall to $70,000. Base prediction: The price may first test the $80,000 support level, then rebound to $85,000, with a volatility range of $80,000-$90,000. Summary: BTC faces short-term downward pressure, but the long-term trend remains optimistic. Investors should pay attention to the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18 and macroeconomic changes, managing risks cautiously.

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