Recently, the debate over bull and bear markets has become increasingly intense and contradictory.
Through various statements online, the majority of retail investors convey the message that the bull market has ended, and the crypto market has entered a long bear market.
There’s still a small portion of people who are unsure, believing a bull market will come, but that it isn’t here yet.
Now, those who can firmly believe we are in a bull market have become rare.
I’ve expressed my views many times already. Today, we won’t debate whose views are right or wrong; time will provide us with the answer.
Today we are discussing the viewpoint that most agree on in the current market: 'bear market.'
First, let me ask everyone a question: If this bull market ends just like this, are you satisfied?
Most people do not hold Bitcoin; in the early days of this bull market, they may have bought Ethereum, ADA, BNB, FIL, LTC, DOGO, and other established coins, planning to hold them indefinitely.
Once we reach 2024, with inscriptions booming, the meme sector thriving, and Solana breaking through first, yet the coins in hand remain stagnant, many people couldn’t help but cut losses in the second half of 2024, switching to the Sol meme sector.
The reality is that coins like Dogecoin, Ripple, ADA, and ETC have surged quickly, while the inscriptions and memes in hand have plummeted, resulting in a loss of over 80% of the principal.
As everyone says, the market has entered a bear market; breaking even has become a luxury. I think most people feel unwilling in their hearts.
So has anyone thought about the following three questions?
First: If the market enters a bear phase, should you withdraw and wait for the next bull market?
The last bear market was like this; many people saw the prices continuously drop and felt hopeless about breaking even, so they stopped paying attention. When this bull market returned and news reported Bitcoin breaking 70,000, they came back. By then, the development of the crypto space had changed, and they couldn’t keep up with the pace, re-entering as fodder.
If the market truly enters a bear phase, we will not just give up. The bear market is the best time to learn. The research department will study the market for valuable potential coins and actively prepare for the next wave of bull markets. As investors, this is a time to focus on learning.
Second: Does a bear market mean there are no opportunities?
Even if the crypto market enters a bear market, it doesn’t mean the end of the crypto world. After the last bull market peaked, those who engaged in spot derivatives during the bear market and closed positions by November 2022 still saw 3-4 times returns.
Moreover, there are many rebound opportunities even in a bear market; it doesn’t just keep falling. If you master the ability to understand market conditions, you can judge when to stop losses and seize rebound opportunities, which can at least double your investment.
Most people in the market are highly leveraged from outside. Today’s losses represent years of family savings or loans. How many years will it take to pay these back through working?
Third: The most important question, what if I am wrong?
Currently, those who firmly believe in a bear market essentially focus on one core point: the market keeps falling.
But the financial market is so complex, how many dare to say they really understand finance? If you can’t even read candlestick charts, how can you claim to understand finance? It’s hard to have confidence in that.
So if you easily conclude: bear market or bull market, without rigorous analysis of the essence, if you misjudge the big direction, the consequences will be irreversible!
Once you determine it’s a bear market, should you liquidate your positions, or wait on the sidelines, or even short? If your overall trend direction is wrong, not only will you miss wealth opportunities, but you may also end up losing everything.
So regardless of whether you currently think it’s a bull market or a bear market, don’t casually draw conclusions based on surface observations, and don’t just follow others’ opinions.
Traditional industries and traditional profit-making strategies will become increasingly difficult in the face of competition. If you allow your income structure to be singular in this changing society, it’s dangerous.
Investing is something everyone will generally engage in the future. Many have walked many detours to finally touch the door of this industry.
Since the future cannot be separated from the market, why not study hard to figure out how to judge bull and bear patterns, how to identify bottoms and tops, and change your mindset?
In the crypto market, whether in a bull or bear phase, the people who make money are always the 20% insiders.
Those who lose money, regardless of bull or bear market, will chase highs and sell lows, act against the trend, feel confused and anxious, becoming fodder.