The undercurrents of a bull market in 2025! Three major variables may disrupt the market, are you ready?
In March 2025, panic voices claiming 'the bull market is over' flooded Twitter. As an experienced player who has gone through several rounds of bull and bear cycles, I want to say: 2025 may not be the starting point of a bull market, but it is definitely a key year full of variables and complex stories. Are you ready?
1. The halving effect is failing, the market enters a new stage
Bitcoin's fourth halving was completed in April 2024, but the market reaction has been far less than before. The BTC price has been fluctuating between $120,000 and $140,000, and the number of miners has decreased by 18%. This indicates that the traditional halving effect is losing its efficacy, and the market has entered a brand new phase.
2. The Federal Reserve's policy: A sword hanging over the market
The core CPI in the U.S. remains stuck at 3.2%. Although the Federal Reserve hinted at possible interest rate cuts, they have accelerated the pace of balance sheet reduction, reaching $95 billion per month. In the first quarter of 2025, the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 2.1%, reshuffling valuation models for all risk assets.
3. Off-chain variables: Three potential factors that could disrupt the market
The future market may be completely changed by the following three variables:
AI computing power tokenization: Nvidia acquired a DePIN protocol company, and the proof-of-computing mechanism may become a new hotspot.
Global CBDC interoperability protocol: The IMF will release new standards in April, and competition for central bank digital currencies will become increasingly fierce.
Energy war black swan: Russia has already settled 17% of its oil and gas exports in Bitcoin, and geopolitical risks could trigger massive market shocks.
4. Emotional cycle: The 'pass the parcel' effect of capital flow
On-chain data shows that in February, the stock of BTC on exchanges increased by 5%. Large funds are rotating at high positions, while retail investors are rushing towards new concepts like modular blockchains.
Operational advice: How to play in 2025 without losing?
50% of positions converted to stablecoins: Prioritize offshore dollar custody to ensure fund safety.
20% of funds allocated to the AI + DePIN track: Focus on innovative projects in the proof-of-computing mechanism.
30% of funds waiting for black swan events: Pay special attention to the April 15th restructuring of the U.S. Treasury's special drawing rights, seizing opportunities in market fluctuations.
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