3.12 U.S. Stock Pre-Market: Core CPI 0.2%!
(The pre-market notes didn’t display for some reason... here’s another one)
February Core CPI 0.2% (month-on-month), lower than all expectations of 0.27%-0.3%
1. Rent prices increased by 0.3%, lower than last month's 0.4%
2. New car prices decreased by 0.1%, lower than last month's 0%; used cars 0.9%, lower than last month's 2.2%
3. Transportation services decreased by 0.8%, lower than last month's 1.8%
4. Medical services increased by 0.3%. Higher than last month's 0%
Almost all indicators included in the core PCE showed a decline, including stubborn rent
The market's initial reaction was positive, S&P futures soared, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell
As mentioned in previous notes, this leads many investors to believe that the softened CPI data, combined with stable inflation expectations (explained in the previous notes), will result in the Fed's dot plot during the March FOMC meeting showing 3 rate cuts (instead of the previous 2)
However, today’s data is still far from reversing sentiment and can only be seen as a temporary comfort
Moreover, considering the uncertainty of tariffs, this round of position reduction is not yet complete (in the middle of innings), a lot of funds will take this opportunity to reduce positions at highs and fade the rally
Next, the market will turn its attention to tomorrow's PPI, but more importantly, Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. If these two data points do not deteriorate, the market will rise further (still subject to profit-taking at highs)
Conversely, the rise will be interrupted. I have already started positioning, and it’s about to take off! #CPI数据来袭 #加密市场反弹 $BTC