Inflation has decreased, USD is falling. Will the US Federal Reserve lower the rate on March 19? 😇
Yes — if:
1. Tariffs will reduce inflation by lowering prices for local producers' goods. Experts say that a recession isn't bad; the markets are inflated by an abnormal injection of money due to the pandemic, and then by Biden and the military-industrial complex; they need to be deflated to complete the cycle and form the bottom of a new one.
2. If the USD index falls to 95-98.
3. If the markets have sufficiently cooled down, according to the Federal Reserve. There could be another 30% drop, yes, you heard that right.
4. If OPEC increases oil production starting in April.
5. If Japan skips raising rates during this period.
No — if:
1. The mood and ability to "buy" remain among the masses.
2. If aid to warring countries is resumed.
3. Low rate of USD decline.
4. A black swan event and rising oil prices (Iran).
Regarding tariffs: according to Trump's plan, US partners will remove their tariffs, and the US will remove its own, which will lead to lower prices in most of the world, cool inflation, and stimulate consumption. So far, partners are escalating, while in some EU countries there is already a recession, but the leftists do not want to eliminate bureaucracy and inefficiency because the EU will plunge into chaos as soon as social programs are cut.
