As a deep observer of the crypto market, I’m here to break down the underlying logic of this XRP ETF game. The article is a bit long, please read it patiently!
1. What is the SEC's 'delay tactics' hiding?
The SEC's delay in processing Grayscale's XRP trust to ETF application and Canary Capital's process is essentially releasing smoke bombs to the market. The current situation resembles the tug-of-war over Bitcoin ETF back in the day — the regulators do not want to take the blame for 'hindering innovation' but are also afraid of losing control after letting go.
However, there is a variable this time: The entry of traditional asset management giants like BlackRock (for example, its Bitcoin ETF IBIT has been included in model portfolios for testing) is increasing the SEC's cost of hesitation.
I have observed that the core contradiction the SEC is currently grappling with is the determination of XRP's securities attributes, which directly relates to the compliance of ETF underlying assets. Interestingly, although BlackRock has paused its own XRP ETF plan, its layout continues through channels like Grayscale.
2. Traditional institutions' 'openly repairing the plank road while secretly crossing the sea.'
Franklin Templeton's raid-style declaration is a strong signal — these players holding trillions in assets are not just gambling on a single approval result, but are building the infrastructure for crypto asset management.
They chose Coinbase Custody as the custodian, clearly anticipating the SEC's obsession with compliant custody. What's bolder is the physical settlement model, which not only avoids the regulatory disputes of traditional cash settlements but also locks up XRP spot to form price support.
Given that BlackRock and 15 other institutions have nearly $14 billion in positions on Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs, traditional capital is clearly playing a bigger game.
3. Three ironclad pieces of evidence of market undercurrents.
On-chain data speaks: Although the web page does not directly mention XRP holding changes, referencing BlackRock's IBIT raising $1.38 billion in a single quarter, the willingness of large funds to allocate to crypto ETFs is already forming a trend.
Old institutions like Grayscale are still pushing for XRP ETFs, indicating that professional players recognize this asset's long-term value.
Regulatory arbitrage window: The SEC's shift in attitude towards the Ethereum ETF (from tough to approval) proves that regulation is not set in stone.
Currently, XRP's situation is similar to ETH three years ago. If there is a turnaround in the Ripple lawsuit before April 16 (for example, partial victories), it may trigger an acceleration in approvals.
BlackRock's strategic resolve: Although it has paused its own XRP ETF, its layout in the crypto field has obviously accelerated — both through testing with the IBIT model and maintaining an ambiguous attitude towards new targets like Solana.
This 'multi-pronged' strategy is essentially reserving ammunition for a full-scale charge once regulation becomes clearer.
4. Endgame analysis: Three possible paths
Optimal solution: Ripple achieves a key victory in the lawsuit (e.g., clarifying that XRP is not a security), and giants like BlackRock subsequently launch XRP ETFs, triggering institutional FOMO.
Referring to the tens of billions of dollars that flowed in on the day after the Bitcoin ETF approval, XRP may replicate this trend.
Intermediate state: The SEC adopts a 'limited release' strategy, approving trust conversion ETFs for institutions like Grayscale (similar to the GBTC model). This compromise solution can maintain regulatory authority while meeting market demand, but will lead to a dual-track price system for XRP with 'on-market premium + off-market discount.'
Black Swan: A complete loss in the lawsuit and the SEC completely bans XRP ETF.
In this case, BlackRock may turn to offshore markets (such as Hong Kong or Dubai) to issue products, using its global asset management network for compliance arbitrage, similar to how Mubadala Investment Company laid out Bitcoin through IBIT.
My operational memo;
Keep an eye on April 16: The deadline for Ripple's lawsuit appeal is the biggest variable recently, and breakthroughs on the legal front will directly rewrite the rules of the game.
Watch Grayscale's actions: The changes in its XRP trust size are a barometer of institutional confidence. If there is sustained premium, it indicates a higher probability of ETF approval.
Decoding BlackRock's financial report: If the next quarterly report discloses that crypto-related asset management scale exceeds expected growth (referring to its Q2 asset management scale reaching $10.6 trillion), it may hint at hidden warehouse layouts.
Beware of market manipulation: The recent surge in short liquidations (the user originally mentioned $7 million) could be a precursor to a major player washing out, and one must guard against the classic script of 'false breakouts + true harvesting.'
The essence of this game is the struggle for asset pricing rights between the traditional financial system and the native power of crypto. When giants like BlackRock start to reshape the rules of the game with trillions in assets under management, XRP is no longer just a simple payment token, but a touchstone for whether crypto assets can integrate into the mainstream financial system.
The only thing we can be sure of now is: Regardless of the outcome, this will be a landmark battle recorded in the history of crypto.
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