$ETH

Current Status of ETH

According to recent data (based on search results and market dynamics), ETH's price experienced some fluctuations at the beginning of 2025. In recent days (as of March 11), the price of ETH dropped significantly, once falling below 2,100 dollars and even touching levels below 2,000 dollars (such as the low of 1,820 dollars on March 10, see coindesk.com). This is related to Bitcoin's (BTC) adjustment, macroeconomic pressures (such as market panic triggered by Trump's tariff policies), and intensified ecological competition for ETH itself.

However, on March 11, it was reported that ETH rebounded by 12% within 24 hours, rising from 1,996 dollars to 2,242 dollars (cointelegraph.com). This indicates that there may have been some buying support or a warming sentiment in the market in the short term. So, is a 'big turnaround' to be expected?

Analysis of the Possibility of ETH's 'Big Turnaround'

Here are several key factors that may drive ETH's turnaround:

  1. Whale Accumulation

    • Data shows that ETH whales (large holders) recently purchased approximately 1.1 million ETH within 48 hours (worth about 2.4 billion dollars, see cryptopotato.com). This large-scale buying is usually seen as a confidence signal for future price increases. If whales continue to accumulate, it may trigger an imbalance between supply and demand, driving prices higher.

    • Historically, when ETH's MVRV ratio (market value to realized value ratio) falls below 0.8 (such as in October 2023), it often signals a bottom, followed by a rebound (cointelegraph.com). The current MVRV is close to this level, suggesting a possible turning point.

  2. Trump's Cryptocurrency Policy

    • Trump recently announced that BTC, ETH, and four other cryptocurrencies would be included in the U.S. strategic reserves (reuters.com, cnn.com), which temporarily boosted market sentiment. Following the announcement on March 2, ETH's price once rose over 10%. If the policy is implemented (such as the actual purchase of ETH for reserves), it may bring long-term benefits to ETH and attract institutional funds.

    • However, it should be noted that the policy details are still unclear; if it is just verbal support without substantive action, the short-term upward trend may retreat.

  3. Technical Upgrade (Pectra Upgrade)

    • ETH's Pectra upgrade went live on the Sepolia test network on March 5 (cointelegraph.com), aimed at improving network efficiency and reducing transaction costs. Although analysts believe this will not immediately push prices up, it may enhance ETH's competitiveness in the long term, especially against challenges from Layer-1 chains like Solana and BNB.

    • If the mainnet upgrade is successfully completed, it may restore confidence in the developer community and drive the recovery of DeFi and NFT ecosystems.

  4. Market Technicals

    • Analysts point out that if ETH can hold above the key support level of 2,350 dollars (-0.5σ MVRV pricing band, see tradingview.com), it may welcome a rebound, targeting 3,260 dollars or even 4,164 dollars (+1.0σ pricing band). However, if it falls below 2,000 dollars, the next support may be at 1,444 dollars, making a turnaround more difficult.

    • Currently, ETH has fallen below a rising trend line that lasted for 980 days (cointelegraph.com), with a short-term bearish trend, but an oversold state may also trigger a technical rebound.

Obstacles and Risks

  • Competitive Pressure: Chains like Solana and Base pose threats to ETH in terms of performance and cost, and the narrative's attractiveness is declining (crypto.news).

  • Market Sentiment: If BTC continues to decline (such as falling below 80,000), ETH may also adjust, delaying the turnaround opportunity (decrypt.co).

  • Regulatory Uncertainty: Chinese users' ability to trade ETH may be restricted by policy, and global regulatory attitudes may also affect capital inflows.

What is needed for a 'big turnaround'?

To achieve a 'big turnaround' (for example, returning above 4,000 dollars or even challenging historical highs), ETH may need:

  1. External Catalysts: Such as the U.S. reserves purchasing ETH, and ETF funds re-entering (recently ETH ETF saw outflows of 455 million dollars, see crypto.news).

  2. BTC Stabilization: If BTC can hold above 80,000 and rebound, ETH may take the opportunity to turn around.

  3. Ecosystem Recovery: A surge in demand for DeFi or new applications (such as gaming, metaverse) reignites market enthusiasm.

My View

In the short term (from a few weeks to a month), ETH may see a phase of rebound, potentially returning to the 2,500-3,000 dollar range, based on whale buying and technical overselling. However, for a 'big turnaround' (regaining dominance in the bull market), more time and strong positive drivers are needed, such as policy implementation or BTC leading the entire market to warm up. Currently, ETH seems more like a 'liquidity shadow' following BTC (as mentioned on X), with insufficient independent momentum for a turnaround.

Do you have any specific expectations for the 'big turnaround'? For example, price targets or timelines?