Directory:
1. This week's large token unlock data;
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the rise and fall of popular tokens/sector fund flows;
3. The inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds;
4. The Altcoin Index remains low;
5. Key macro events and economic data forecasts for this week.
1. This week's large token unlock data;
This week, multiple projects have details on unlocks, sorted by unlock value as follows:
Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 13, valued at about 162 million USD;
Connex (CONX) will unlock approximately 4.33 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 15, accounting for 376.3% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 78 million USD;
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 6:00 AM Beijing time on March 13, accounting for 1.92% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 67.4 million USD;
Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 17.22 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 14, accounting for 28.52% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 35.3 million USD;
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on March 15, accounting for 1.19% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 11.8 million USD;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 64 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 15, accounting for 2.33% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 11 million USD;
Staika (STIK) will unlock approximately 1.5 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 10, valued at about 7.8 million USD.
The unlocking situation of these projects may affect the relevant markets to varying degrees. The above is in UTC+8 time; this week, pay attention to the negative effects brought by the unlocking of these tokens, avoid spot trading, and look for shorting opportunities in contracts. The data from CoinAnk shows that CONX, CHEEL, ZKJ, and APT have larger unlocking circulation ratios and scales, so pay extra attention.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the rise and fall of popular tokens/sector fund flows
CoinAnk data shows that in the past 7 days, the crypto market, divided by conceptual sectors, generally presented an outflow trend, only the fan token sector achieved net inflow, while other sectors with smaller net outflows concentrated in Launchpool, RWA, brc20, metaverse, and storage sectors. In the past week, many tokens have also experienced rotation rises. The top 500 by market capitalization include AUDIO, REN, SHELL, MERL, HMSTR, and ENA, which have relatively high gains and can continue to focus on trading opportunities for strong tokens.
3. The inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 739.2 million USD, with net outflows for four trading days, only Wednesday seeing 22.1 million USD outflow, among which: BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of 129.6 million USD; Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of 201 million USD, continuing a six-week outflow; ARKB had a net outflow of 163.5 million USD; Grayscale's GBTC had a net outflow of 125.4 million USD.
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market has seen fund outflows for four consecutive weeks. With institutional investors withdrawing, weak demand has disrupted the supply-demand balance of Bitcoin, leading to an 8.76% drop in Bitcoin over the past week.
We believe that the continuous net outflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF for four weeks (reaching 739 million USD last week) reflects the deepening of institutional investors' rebalancing strategies under macro uncertainty. Top products like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC are also experiencing simultaneous outflows (1.3 billion and 200 million USD respectively), indicating that traditional asset management institutions are responding to potential liquidity risks by reducing Bitcoin exposure—this is closely related to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields to 4.6%, which has triggered a revaluation of risk assets.
In terms of short-term transmission mechanisms, ETF fund outflows directly impact the supply-demand balance in the spot market. Based on current data, the average daily net outflow is approximately 185 million USD, which is 2.3 times the daily selling volume of miners (about 900 BTC), creating significant selling pressure. Additionally, on-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders selling at a loss has risen to 68%, leading the market into a negative feedback loop of 'institution withdrawal - price decline - panic selling'.
Medium-term structural contradictions are reflected in two types of divergence: first, the internal liquidity stratification of ETFs, with Grayscale's GBTC outflows slowing (125 million vs. 180 million last week) while Fidelity is accelerating withdrawals, which may indicate a shift of some institutions toward low-fee products; second, the concentration of Bitcoin on-chain holdings is increasing, with whale addresses (holding 1000+ BTC) increasing their holdings by 12,000, forming a characteristic of 'weak hands exchanging for strong hands' as a bottoming feature.
The current market is in the liquidity repricing phase of a mid-bull market. The reversal of ETF fund flows requires two signals: first, a decline in U.S. CPI data rekindling rate cut expectations, and second, Bitcoin's volatility dropping to a low for the year (currently 44% vs peak of 78%) to attract allocation-type capital to flow back. Historical data shows that adjustment cycles led by institutions often complete capital exchange with 'sharp declines and slow recoveries', and the current price level may be close to the end of short-term risk release.
4. The Altcoin Index continues to decline.
CoinAnk data shows that the Altcoin Season Index is currently around 17, having remained below 25 for 12 consecutive days since February 27. This is a function to measure the popularity of altcoins, indicating how many tokens among the top 100 by market capitalization have outperformed BTC. If this value is around 75, the market is more likely to be in an Altcoin Season; if below 25, it is likely in a Bitcoin Season. Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, only 17 have outperformed BTC in the past 90 days, including BERA (+499%), IP (+81%), BGB (+78%), etc. Meanwhile, BTC's performance during the same period was -15%.
We believe that the Altcoin Season Index has remained below 25 points for 12 consecutive days (currently 17), revealing that the current crypto market is still deeply trapped in a risk-averse mode dominated by Bitcoin. Although BTC has dropped 15% during the same period, only 17 of the top 100 tokens have outperformed, reflecting a highly selective allocation of funds under liquidity tightening—tokens like BERA (+499%) and BGB (+78%) have risen against the trend, essentially indicating a capital gathering toward strong narratives (such as DePIN, AI proxies) and exchange platform tokens, rather than an overall recovery of market risk appetite.
There are three driving factors for structural differentiation: first, the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF for five weeks (accumulating over 2.8 billion USD), leading to a contraction of the overall liquidity pool in the crypto market, forcing funds to concentrate from high-beta assets to more certain targets; second, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields to 4.6% suppressing risk appetite, with retail leverage ratio (loan balance/market cap) dropping to 0.8% (new low for the year), weakening speculative momentum for altcoins; third, new public chains (such as Berachain) attract existing funds through innovative token distribution mechanisms, forming local hotspots but failing to activate overall rotation.
On the implicit signal level, both the 'point explosion' of altcoin excess returns and the 'area fatigue' coexist, reflecting that the market is experiencing a narrative reconstruction period—previous cycles such as DeFi and GameFi still need to clear valuations, while capital is strategically positioning in areas like modular and parallel infrastructure iterations. Historical data shows that the start of Altcoin Season is often lagging Bitcoin's bottom by 1-2 months. Currently, BTC's volatility has dropped to a low for the year (30-day volatility 26%), which may provide a window for capital switching. However, a trend reversal requires two conditions: a reversal of ETF fund flows and a net inflow of stablecoins exceeding the monthly average threshold of 3 billion USD.
5. Key macro events and economic data forecasts for this week: U.S. CPI + PPI, North America Daylight Saving Time.
Monday: ① Data: Japan's trade balance, Eurozone investor confidence index, New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations; ② Daylight saving time begins in North America, stock trading and economic data release times will be advanced by one hour; ③ Trump meets with U.S. technology industry executives; ④ Tariffs on certain imported goods from the U.S. officially take effect.
Tuesday: ① Data: U.S. JOLTs job openings and NFIB small business confidence index; ② U.S. and Ukrainian officials hold first talks in Saudi Arabia.
Wednesday: ① Data: U.S. API crude oil inventory and EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. February CPI; ② Bank of Canada's interest rate decision announced; ③ EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report; ④ European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech; ⑤ OPEC releases monthly oil market report; ⑥ G7 holds a foreign ministers' meeting, until March 14; ⑦ U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum take effect.
Thursday: ① Data: Eurozone January industrial output month-on-month, U.S. initial jobless claims, February PPI year-on-year; ② IEA releases monthly oil market report.
Friday: ① Data: U.K. January industrial output month-on-month, Canada's January wholesale sales month-on-month, U.S. March one-year inflation expectation preliminary value and Michigan University consumer confidence index preliminary value; ② The U.S. government’s existing temporary funding bill expires.
We believe that this week's U.S. CPI and PPI data will have a core impact on the crypto market. As key indicators of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, if the inflation data exceeds expectations (such as CPI remaining high year-on-year or PPI rebounding), it could reinforce market expectations for a delayed rate cut. Historical data shows that in such scenarios, expectations for tightening dollar liquidity rise, putting pressure on risk assets, and the crypto market may face short-term selling pressure. Additionally, U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum may push up input inflation through supply chain costs, further constraining the Federal Reserve's easing space and indirectly suppressing risk appetite in the crypto market.
On the other hand, Trump's policies have a hedging effect. His meetings with technology executives and supportive attitude towards the crypto industry (such as the Bitcoin reserve plan) may boost long-term market confidence, but the trade friction risk triggered by tariffs still poses uncertainty. Although daylight saving time changes trading hours, the substantive impact is limited, and attention should be paid to market liquidity changes during data publication periods.
Other events such as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, OPEC report, and crude oil inventory data may influence inflation expectations through fluctuations in energy prices, thereby impacting the pricing of crypto assets. Overall, the short-term volatility of the crypto market will be significantly amplified, and investors need to closely monitor the deviation between CPI/PPI and market expectations, as well as the interactive effects of Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical events.
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