The CPI data tonight is crucial
Prediction:
1. Inflation is expected to be slightly higher than anticipated, delaying the Fed's interest rate cut again.
2. Even if it meets or is below expectations, the Fed will still cut rates in the second half of the year.
Currently, based on the FOMC interest rate probabilities, a rate cut in March is definitely unlikely. The probability of a rate cut in May is 45%, and in June, it is 93%. If this week's CPI data is positive and the U.S. government can secure funding on March 15, the probability of a rate cut in May will continue to rise. Personally, I hope for 2.9, so that the market can rebound a few thousand points, as it has dropped too sharply recently and needs a rebound to ease the downward market sentiment.