According to market data and the latest updates on the morning of March 12, 2025, the cryptocurrency market continues to experience a volatile bottoming trend. Below are key analyses:

I. Overall market performance

  1. Bitcoin (BTC)​
    The morning price rebounded from a high of $79,844 to a low of $76,560, currently reported at $82,240 (up 2.7% from the previous day), but the hourly level still shows a downward structure.2. The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours reached $870 million, mainly due to forced liquidation of leveraged long positions.
    Key signals: The weekly level has broken the support level of $84,500, forming a 'descending triangle' pattern, with technical targets pointing to the range of $76,000-$78,000.

  2. Ethereum (ETH)​
    After rebounding from a morning low of $1,752 following a drop from a high of $1,894, it is currently reported at $1,839 (down 2.7% from the previous day). The on-chain staking rate has dropped to 18%, and the DeFi protocol TVL has pulled back $45 billion from its peak.
    Key signals: The 4-hour MACD indicator shows a 'water without roots' pattern, indicating short-term pullback demand.

II. Core driving factors

  1. Macroeconomic and policy shocks

    • The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes suggest persistent inflation, with interest rate cut expectations cooling, the dollar index remains at a high of 106.8, squeezing traditional safe-haven assets out of the cryptocurrency market.

    • The Trump administration has expanded energy sanctions against Iran, and tensions in the Middle East have intensified market risk aversion.

  2. Market sentiment and technical breakdown

    • The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 12 (extreme fear), with Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing a net outflow for 8 consecutive days, totaling $2.9 billion.

    • The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, approaching the historical bottom threshold (1.0), while the proportion of long-term holders (LTH) has rebounded to 65%, which may indicate a potential bottom is near.

III. Key technical signals

IV. Risk warnings

  1. Extreme volatility risk: The auction results of the remaining assets from FTX liquidation (approximately 74,000 BTC) on March 15 may exacerbate market volatility.

  2. Technical breakdown risk: If BTC falls below the psychological level of $80,000, it may trigger algorithmic trading programs to follow suit and sell.

  3. Policy uncertainty: The EU (cryptocurrency anti-money laundering legislation) may raise compliance costs, leading to institutional capital withdrawal.

V. Operational strategy recommendations

  • Short-term trading:

    • Short positions in BTC in the range of $81,800-$82,300 (stop loss at $83,500), target $79,500.

    • ETH focuses on the resistance level of $1,930-$1,910, rebound to short (target $1,830).

  • Long-term allocation:

    • If BTC pulls back to the range of $76,000-$78,000, build positions in three batches (40% of total position).

    • Allocate 5%-10% to gold ETFs (e.g., GLD) or stablecoins (USDC) to hedge systemic risks.

(Note: The above analysis is based on morning data from March 12, 2025. The market is volatile, and decisions should be based on real-time dynamics.)